The current market bias for the AUD to SEK exchange rate is range-bound.
Key drivers influencing this outlook include the interest rate differential, with the Reserve Bank of Australia potentially raising rates to 3.85% in early 2026, compared to the Riksbank's steady rate of 2.25%. Additionally, positive economic forecasts for Sweden anticipate GDP growth rising from 1.5% to 2.6% in 2026, contrasting with an inflation rate of 0.6%. Moreover, the AUD's response to commodity prices, particularly iron ore, could affect its stability against SEK.
In the near term, the AUD to SEK exchange rate is expected to remain within a stable range similar to its recent average.
Upside risks include a stronger-than-expected commodity demand supporting the AUD, while downside risks may arise from any unexpected economic downturns in either Australia or Sweden.