Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, with AUD/SEK below the 90-day average and in the lower half of three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The RBA signals potential rate hikes in 2026 while the Riksbank holds, creating a headwind for AUD versus SEK as growth and inflation risks are reassessed.
- Risk/commodities: China’s softer inflation drags on demand for Australian exports, particularly iron ore, weighing on the AUD and limiting its upside in global risk-on sessions.
- Macro factor: Upcoming Australian CPI data could shift policy expectations and tilt the AUD, depending on whether inflation pressures cool or surprise to the upside.
Range: Expect the pair to drift within the 3-month range, with limited moves unless a shift in risk appetite or policy signals emerges.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: clearer signs of higher RBA rates or stronger commodity prices could lift the AUD.
- Downside risk: deeper China demand weakness or a clearer pullback in global risk appetite could push the AUD lower against the SEK and keep downside pressure intact.