AUD/SEK Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and lacking clear drivers.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is signaling potential rate hikes due to inflation pressures, while the Riksbank maintains its policy rate, creating a favorable gap for AUD.
• Risk/commodities: The recent decline in global commodity prices, particularly iron ore, is weighing on the AUD, as lower demand impacts export revenue.
• One macro factor: Australia's upcoming inflation figures are anticipated to influence AUD performance; an uptick could strengthen the currency.
Range: AUD/SEK is likely to drift within the recent stable range as it finds support near current levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Australia could boost the AUD.
• Downside risk: Persistent declines in commodity prices could further weaken the AUD against the SEK.