The current market bias for the AUD to THB exchange rate appears to be range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- Interest rate expectations suggest the Reserve Bank of Australia may raise rates next year, which typically supports the AUD's strength.
- Thailand's economic outlook shows a projected GDP growth of only 1.5%, which may weaken the THB amid export slowdowns.
- The strength of the THB is anticipated to increase due to a robust current account surplus and capital inflows.
The expected trading range suggests a movement around the current level, with recent trading observed just below its 3-month average. In the near term, the trading range is likely to reflect stability around existing levels.
An upside risk could arise from stronger-than-expected economic data from Australia, while a downside risk may be posed by renewed geopolitical tensions affecting investor sentiment and export growth in Thailand.