AUD/THB Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent rate hike is boosting the Australian dollar’s appeal compared to the Thai baht.
• Risk/commodities: The current uptrend in oil prices may support the AUD, as higher commodity prices typically strengthen the currency.
• One macro factor: Australia’s rising inflation has increased expectations for more monetary tightening, which can further enhance the AUD's strength.
Range:
Expect the AUD/THB to hold steady within its recent range, as the market looks for direction.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected economic report from Australia could propel the AUD higher.
• Downside risk: A significant strengthening of the Thai baht driven by intervention measures or export concerns could weaken the AUD/THB pairing.