Bias: range-bound, AUD/THB is near the 90-day average and near the midpoint of the 3-month range, with little momentum.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The RBA signaled hikes in 2026 while the BOT cut rates, widening the gap and supporting AUD vs THB.
- Oil strength: Oil is at 90-day highs, above its three-month average, which supports AUD via the commodity link while higher energy costs weigh on THB.
- China factor: China's uneven rebound dampens demand for Australian exports, notably iron ore, weighing on the AUD amid ongoing policy and supply adjustments.
Range: Expect drift within the recent range, likely near the middle as data flows remain mixed, with quiet sessions ahead.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A clearer RBA path to hikes supported by strong Australian data could push the AUD higher versus the THB overnight.
- Downside risk: A sharper Chinese slowdown or softer Australian data delaying hikes could push AUD lower against THB as policy expectations shift.