AUD/THB Outlook:
The outlook for AUD/THB is slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is currently above its recent average and has limited clear drivers. The AUD is trading at higher levels that are not fully supported by ongoing market developments.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy, contrasting with the Bank of Thailand's tighter controls amid the baht's strength, enhancing the AUD's attractiveness.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above their recent average, which generally supports Australia’s commodity-linked economy.
- Macro factor: Improved consumer confidence in Australia could bolster the AUD, encouraging spending and investment.
Range:
The AUD/THB is likely to hold within its established range, with potential to drift towards the upper end due to the lack of strong directional cues.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Robust economic data from Australia, such as strong PMIs, could elevate the AUD further.
- Downside risk: Continued strength in the baht due to intervention measures by the Bank of Thailand may pressurize the AUD/THB exchange rate.