Bias: range-bound, current AUD/THB is near the 90-day average and sits in the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The RBA has signaled possible rate hikes in 2026 while the BOT has cut rates, widening the policy gap and providing a potential boost for AUD against THB.
- Oil/commodities: Oil remains above its 3-month average with heightened volatility, supporting the AUD through its commodity-linked economy.
- China macro: China’s uneven rebound weighs on Australian exports, dampening demand for the AUD.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the 3-month band, keeping around the mid-range as buyers and sellers balance.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger Australian data or a clearer path to RBA tightening could lift the AUD/THB pair.
- Downside risk: further BOT easing or signs of Thai growth acceleration that support the THB could push AUD/THB lower.