The current market bias for the AUD to THB exchange rate is range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- Interest rate expectations suggest a potential rise in Australia's rates, which may support the AUD.
- The Thai baht is expected to strengthen due to a robust current account surplus and capital inflows, influencing the exchange rate.
- Thailand's GDP growth is forecast to be modest, which could limit the upside for the baht.
In the near term, the AUD to THB rate is expected to trade within a stable range, reflecting recent movements just below its three-month average.
An upside risk is an unexpected increase in commodity prices that could boost demand for the AUD. Conversely, a downside risk could be the Bank of Thailand implementing further rate cuts to stimulate growth, weakening the baht.