The current market bias for the AUD to THB exchange rate is range-bound.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, as the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates due to rising inflation, while the Bank of Thailand projects GDP growth challenges. The healthy performance of Thailand’s current account supports the baht, but concerns over its impact on exports from a stronger currency linger. Additionally, the Australian dollar's value is influenced by commodity prices like iron ore and coal, while the Thai baht may face pressures from fluctuations in oil prices, as evidenced by recent volatility in the oil market.
The near-term range for AUD to THB is likely to stay stable, reflecting recent trading patterns within a modest range. On the upside, a stronger global economic outlook could push the AUD higher, while on the downside, any significant economic slowdown in China may negatively impact demand for Australian exports, weighing on the AUD.
