Bias: The AUD/THB is currently range-bound, as it is near the 90-day average and within the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia's potential interest rate hikes could support the Australian dollar against the Thai baht, which is currently facing downward pressure from the Bank of Thailand's recent interest rate cut to stimulate growth.
- Risk/commodities: The recent increase in oil prices could benefit the Australian dollar, given Australia's status as a commodity exporter, while the baht may struggle amidst economic challenges in Thailand.
- Economic growth projections: Thailand's growth is projected to remain below potential, which could lead to further pressure on the Thai baht as domestic conditions deteriorate.
Range: The AUD/THB is likely to drift within its recent 3-month range as external factors continue to influence currency movements.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Strong Australian economic data, such as impressive CPI or jobs figures, could boost the AUD.
- Downside risk: Weaker Chinese economic indicators reflecting lower demand could further pressure the AUD.