AUD/THB Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate policy, with potential hikes under consideration, contrasts with Thailand's recent rate cut aimed at stimulating growth.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are trending above average, which typically supports the Australian dollar as a commodity currency due to higher export revenues.
• One macro factor: Australia's strong employment figures indicate economic resilience, though China's uneven recovery poses challenges for demand for exports.
Range: Expect the AUD/THB to hold within its recent range, with potential for slight fluctuations but not testing extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A further rise in global commodity prices could strengthen the AUD significantly.
• Downside risk: A deterioration in China’s economic performance may weaken demand for Australian exports, pressuring the AUD.
