AUD/THB Outlook: The outlook for AUD/THB is slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to increase rates, which may strengthen the AUD, while the Bank of Thailand has recently lowered rates to stimulate economic growth, adding pressure to the THB.
- Risk/commodities: Rising commodity prices, including gold, have the potential to support the AUD as a commodity currency amidst fluctuating global markets.
- One macro factor: Concerns over China's uneven economic recovery could impact demand for Australian exports, influencing the AUD's performance against the THB.
Range: The AUD/THB exchange rate is likely to drift within its recent range as uncertainty keeps movements in check.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant increase in commodity prices could reinforce AUD strength.
- Downside risk: A further decline in China's growth forecast may weaken the AUD against the THB.