AUD/THB Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average and close to recent highs without a single clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia's recent interest rate hike supports the AUD against the Bank of Thailand’s more stable policy.
• Risk/commodities: The recent rise in oil prices is benefiting Australia, as higher energy costs often lead to increased demand for Australian exports, bolstering the AUD.
• One macro factor: Stronger-than-expected inflation data in Australia has raised likelihood of further rate hikes, adding pressure on the RBA to maintain monetary tightening.
Range:
Expect the AUD/THB to drift within its recent range, trading close to the upper end but not breaking through extremes just yet.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Any further significant rate hikes by the RBA could push the AUD higher.
• Downside risk: A major downturn in commodity prices, particularly oil, could weaken the AUD considerably.
