Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, AUD/VND sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The RBA has signalled possible rate hikes in 2026, while Vietnam’s central bank remains cautious on expanding policy, widening the rate gap in favour of AUD.
- Macro factor: China's uneven rebound dampens demand for Australian exports, weighing on the AUD.
Range: AUD/VND is likely to drift toward the upper end of the 3-month range, testing the highs.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger-than-expected RBA rate hikes in 2026 lift AUD.
- Downside risk: a renewed USD rally or softer Chinese data weighs on AUD.