AUD/VND Outlook: The outlook is slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Reserve Bank of Australia may raise interest rates due to rising inflation, while the State Bank of Vietnam is likely to maintain a cautious approach regarding monetary policy shifts.
- Risk/commodities: Recent declines in commodity prices could negatively impact the Australian dollar, as it typically trades stronger when commodity values are high.
- One macro factor: China's weak manufacturing data could influence demand for Australian exports, creating uncertainties for the AUD.
Range: The AUD/VND is likely to drift within its recent range and may not test the extremes in the short term.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A stronger than expected interest rate hike from the RBA may boost the AUD significantly.
- Downside risk: Continued weakness in global commodity prices or poor economic data from China could exert downward pressure on the AUD.
