Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as AUD/ZAR trades below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: RBA signaling a path to higher rates while SARB has eased, keeping policy contrasts in favor of AUD but not enough to drive a clear upturn.
- Risk/commodities: Oil sits above its 3-month average with elevated volatility, which tends to support AUD when risk appetite improves, while ZAR remains sensitive to commodity moves and global risk flows.
- Macro factor: China’s uneven rebound dampens demand for Australian exports, weighing on the AUD and leaving future cycles uncertain.
Range: Expect a drift within the 3-month range, with a tilt toward the lower end and the risk of testing the recent low, particularly if oil remains firm and China data disappoints.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A clearer rate-hike path from the RBA could lift the AUD versus the ZAR if risk appetite holds.
- Downside risk: China weakness and softer Australian data could keep AUD under pressure and allow the ZAR to gain.