Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, as AUD/ZAR sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The RBA's potential tightening in 2026 contrasts with SARB's easing, which historically supports the AUD versus the ZAR.
- Risk/commodities: Oil is trading above its longer-term average with notable volatility; a sustained lift in oil tends to support the rand’s income flow, helping ZAR, but volatility keeps gains modest.
- One macro factor: China's softer inflation reading points to subdued demand for Australian exports, weighing on the AUD.
Range: the pair is expected to drift within the recent band, staying near the lower end unless fresh drivers push it toward the middle.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger Australian data or a hawkish RBA stance could push AUD higher against ZAR.
- Downside risk: softer Chinese data or renewed risk-off sentiment could push AUD lower against ZAR.