Recent forecasts for the CAD to CNY exchange rate reflect a mix of influences impacting both currencies. The Canadian dollar (CAD) has garnered support from its positive correlation with the strengthening US dollar, but gains have been curtailed by easing oil prices. As a major oil exporter, movements in oil prices play a significant role in the CAD's performance. Currently, oil prices are at $68.80 per barrel, approximately 3.2% above the three-month average of $66.66, which could provide some upward momentum for the ‘loonie’. However, analysts caution that fluctuations in this commodity could dampen further gains.
In contrast, the Chinese yuan (CNY) has faced mounting pressure due to trade tensions, particularly linked to U.S. tariffs and domestic economic challenges. The yuan recently slid past the critical level of 7.3 per dollar, indicating deeper issues regarding China's post-pandemic recovery and prompting the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to consider more accommodative monetary policies. As of June 2025, JPMorgan has revised its year-end yuan forecast to 7.15 per dollar, reflecting reduced trade tensions and a global pivot towards de-dollarization, albeit highlighting that the yuan remains under pressure.
Exchange rate data shows that CAD to CNY is trading near 5.2788, marking a 14-day high and a 0.8% increase above its three-month average of 5.2344, demonstrating some stability within a tight range of 5.1180 to 5.2951 over the recent months. Experts suggest that while the CAD may benefit from strong oil prices, the ongoing uncertainty in U.S.-China trade relations and the potential for a weakening CNY could balance the outlook for the CAD to CNY exchange rates.
Overall, analysts advise stakeholders to keep a close watch on oil market trends, evolving trade policies, and evaluating economic indicators from both Canada and China, as these will be pivotal in determining future exchange rate movements.