Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, CAD/CZK is above its ninety-day average and sits in the upper half of the three-month range, for now.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: BoC has eased to a lower rate and signalled it will hold, while the CNB keeps policy tighter; the wider gap tends to tilt funds toward CZK and keep CAD in a range, for now.
Macro factor: Canada’s unemployment rose last month, a negative signal that could cap CAD upside if the trend persists, at least in the near term.
Oil outlook: Oil prices stay above the longer-run average with volatility; as a big oil exporter, firm oil supports the loonie and its risk assets.
Range: drift within the three-month range, with occasional visits to the upper end, a pattern familiar to traders.
What could change it:
Upside risk: firmer global risk appetite could lift CAD toward the upper end of the range.
Downside risk: softer Canadian data, especially renewed unemployment, could push CAD toward the lower end as investors reassess risks.
