Bias: The CAD/DKK is currently bullish-to-range-bound, as it is above the 90-day average and situated in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has recently cut rates, while Denmark's central bank maintains a stable interest rate, which may support the DKK against the CAD.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are above their average, benefiting the CAD as a major oil exporter, thus potentially strengthening its position against the DKK.
- Macro factor: Denmark’s foreign-exchange reserves saw a significant drop, possibly affecting the DKK's stability due to reduced confidence and liquidity.
Range: The CAD/DKK is likely to hold its position within a stable 1.6% range in the near term, though it may test the upper extreme if oil prices continue to rally.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant recovery in Canadian employment data could boost the CAD.
- Downside risk: Continued volatility in oil prices or negative impacts from trade tariffs could weaken the CAD further.