The CAD is currently bearish against GBP.
Key drivers influencing this trend include:
- The interest rate differential is narrowing, with the Bank of Canada maintaining rates at 2.25% while the Bank of England is expected to reduce rates to around 3.25% by mid-2026, impacting CAD negatively.
- The recent drop in oil prices, now at $60.82, affects the CAD due to its reliance on oil exports, which puts pressure on the currency as it's well below its recent average.
- On the macroeconomic front, Canada showed stronger employment numbers, which provided some confidence in the CAD, but overall growth signals remain weak.
In the near term, CAD is expected to remain within a stable range against GBP, fluctuating largely around current levels.
An upside risk includes a sudden recovery in oil prices, which could strengthen the CAD. Conversely, further monetary easing by the Bank of England could push the GBP higher against the CAD, adding downward pressure to the CAD/GBP rate.