CAD/ILS Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, influenced by a recent interest rate cut in Israel.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged, while the Bank of Israel recently cut its benchmark rate, favoring the shekel over the loonie.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at multi-month highs, which usually supports the loonie; however, current CAD performance is weakened, limiting its effect.
- Economic growth: Israel's GDP is projected to grow robustly, enhancing confidence in the shekel's strength and further impacting the CAD/ILS rate.
Range: The CAD/ILS is likely to drift within its recent 3-month range, facing downward pressure amid the current conditions.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant recovery in oil prices leading to increased demand for Canadian exports.
- Downside risk: Further rate cuts by the Bank of Israel, which could strengthen the ILS against the CAD.