Forecasts for CAD to ILS
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is currently facing downward pressure, trading at 30-day lows near 2.5710 against the Israeli shekel (ILS), which aligns with its three-month average. Recent market activity has displayed significant volatility, with the CAD-ILS exchange rate fluctuating within a 9.5% range from 2.4761 to 2.7125. Analysts suggest that the CAD's performance has been underwhelming despite recovering oil prices, which typically bolster the currency due to Canada’s status as a major oil exporter. Currently, oil is trading at $62.84, approximately 9.8% below its three-month average of $69.67, indicating a general weakening of market sentiment towards crude.
The impact of rising oil prices on the CAD has not fully materialized, as ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. are clouding the outlook. The prospect of a potential increase in Canada’s unemployment rate could also contribute to the CAD's decline, as forecasters monitor economic indicators closely. Given that the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy plays a critical role in shaping the currency's direction, any decisions related to interest rates will be pivotal for future CAD performance. Higher rates generally strengthen the currency, whereas lower rates tend to weaken it, particularly amid an uncertain economic backdrop.
On the other hand, the Israeli shekel has been significantly affected by escalating geopolitical tensions in the region, with its value plummeting to near eight-year lows against the U.S. dollar. The situation has forced the Bank of Israel to intervene in foreign exchange markets in a bid to stabilize the shekel. The imposition of a 17% tariff on Israeli goods by the U.S. has also compounded challenges for the shekel, which is likely to remain vulnerable given the current conflict.
Looking ahead, analysts expect that the CAD’s trajectory will depend on oil market trends, Bank of Canada monetary policy, and broader global economic factors, while the shekel's movements will be largely dictated by geopolitical developments and trade relations. Investors and traders should remain vigilant, as volatility in both currencies may persist amid these shifting dynamics.
