Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, CAD/ILS sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Israel’s policy stance remains comparatively tighter than Canada’s, which tends to keep ILS firmer against CAD and pressure the cross lower.
- Oil/commodities: Oil sits at multi-week highs, helping CAD on the energy link, but the volatility and mixed global appetite keep gains uncertain for the near term.
- Macro factor: Israel’s rate cut paired with a brighter growth outlook supports ILS, reinforcing the cross’s bias against CAD.
Range: CAD/ILS is likely to hover near the lower end of the 3-month range, with gradual drift driven by oil moves and changes in risk appetite.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Oil staying buoyant and continuing to lift CAD strength against ILS.
- Downside risk: A sharper rise in Canadian unemployment or renewed U.S. trade tensions weigh on CAD/ILS.