Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as the CAD is below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada recently cut its interest rate to support economic growth, while the Bank of Israel lowered its rate to improve inflation, creating a more favorable backdrop for the ILS.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above the 3-month average, which could support the CAD if this trend continues, given Canada's status as a major oil exporter.
• One macro factor: The Bank of Israel's recent forecasts indicate strong economic growth and reduced geopolitical risks, bolstering the shekel's strength.
Range: The CAD/ILS pair is likely to remain range-bound within its recent trading range as both currencies face opposing pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sustained increase in oil prices could boost the CAD significantly.
• Downside risk: Further declines in Canadian employment data may weaken the CAD against the ILS.