The Canadian dollar (CAD) has shown a muted performance recently, influenced significantly by a bearish sentiment among traders. As of September 8, 2025, there has been a notable increase in short positions against the CAD, reaching a five-month high. This trend follows disappointing employment data from Canada, which has heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) during their upcoming meeting. Furthermore, analysts have mixed sentiments about the CAD; while some forecasts indicate a possible strengthening of the currency, others reflect concerns stemming from employment losses and its interconnectedness with the U.S. dollar.
Current market data puts the CAD to Indian rupee (INR) exchange rate near its 14-day highs, trading around 64.00, which is 1.1% above the three-month average of 63.26. Recent fluctuations in oil prices affect the CAD’s value, which is historically tied to commodities, especially given Canada's status as a major oil exporter. Oil prices are currently at $67.44, 1.9% below their three-month average, indicating volatility that contributes to the CAD's movements.
The Indian Rupee (INR) has struggled against the U.S. dollar, recently hitting a record low influenced by U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and significant foreign portfolio outflows. On September 5, 2025, the INR reached 88.36 per U.S. dollar, prompting intervention from the Reserve Bank of India to mitigate further declines. Despite this turmoil, analysts' forecasts suggest that the INR may stabilize, with expectations suggesting minor movements around 88.04 by the end of September and around 88.00 over the coming year.
The outlook for both currencies remains intertwined with broader economic trends, including the impending policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and the geopolitical landscape affecting India. As investment and economic conditions evolve, businesses and individuals engaged in cross-border transactions may want to monitor these developments closely to optimize their international payments.
