Forecasts for CAD to INR
The Canadian dollar (CAD), also known as the "loonie," has shown resilience recently, trading at 90-day highs near 62.09 INR, which is 2.8% above its three-month average of 60.41 INR. Analysts point to a decoupling phenomenon, where the CAD firmed even as oil prices fell to a four-year low of $64.76 USD, 12.2% below the three-month average of $73.75 USD. This situation raises questions about whether this trend will continue or if falling oil prices will ultimately weigh on the CAD, given Canada's status as a major oil exporter.
Despite the fluctuations in oil prices, the Canadian currency's stability suggests underlying strength. Forecasters highlight that monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Canada, particularly those influenced by inflation and employment data, alongside global economic conditions, will play a crucial role in shaping the CAD's trajectory. Furthermore, the loonie’s performance remains closely linked to U.S.-Canada trade dynamics, which have recently been under pressure, adding to the complexity of forecasts.
On the other hand, the Indian rupee (INR) is encountering mixed influences, particularly in the wake of the U.S. imposing a significant tariff rate on products from Taiwan, leading to a generally unstable currency environment across Asia. The rupee’s vulnerability is exacerbated by India's heavy reliance on oil imports, as surging energy prices can lead to higher inflation and necessitate interest rate hikes. The dollar's strength against other major currencies—including the INR—has been fueled by expectations regarding U.S. economic policies under President Trump, creating uncertainties for currencies in the region.
With the INR already weakened by external economic pressures, including trade tariffs and crude oil price surges, predictions for its future remain cautious. Currency analysts indicate that while the rupee's current level carries broadly balanced risks, ongoing geopolitical developments and energy market trends will be critical in determining its stability. Overall, direct comparisons in recent data suggest heightened volatility for both the CAD and INR as they navigate through these external economic pressures and domestic influences.
