The exchange rate forecast for CAD to INR currently reflects a mix of upward and downward pressures influenced by recent economic developments in Canada and India. The Canadian dollar (CAD), which is notably sensitive to oil prices and economic data, has recently weakened due to disappointing retail sales that fell short of expectations. The Bank of Canada's recent rate cuts — two reductions over the past two months, now setting rates at 2.25% — underscore a shift in monetary policy aimed at addressing economic concerns, which further complicates the outlook for the loonie.
On the commodities front, the oil market is currently bearish, with oil prices trading at 30-day lows near USD 62.21, significantly below their 3-month average of USD 65.33. Experts warn that sustained declines in oil prices could continue to apply downward pressure on the CAD, given that the currency's strength is closely linked to Canada’s oil export revenues.
In contrast, the Indian rupee (INR) is facing its own challenges, having recently touched a historic low against the US dollar due to a combination of increased H-1B visa fees and softened foreign inflows. The Reserve Bank of India’s interventions have been insufficient to stabilize the currency amid persistent importer demand for dollars and ongoing concerns over trade policies. Moreover, weak manufacturing exports and a narrowing policy rate differential with the US are expected to exacerbate pressures on the INR.
Currently, the CAD to INR exchange rate is around 63.59, positioned near its 30-day high, while having maintained a stable range between 62.54 to 64.19 over the previous months. The interplay of these factors suggests that near-term movements in the CAD to INR rate will depend heavily on oil market trends, Canadian economic performance, and the broader geopolitical landscape impacting the Indian economy. Analysts indicate that potential fluctuations may continue, and businesses engaging in international transactions should closely monitor these economic indicators to optimize their currency positions.
