Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as CAD/SGD sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: BoC policy remains loose after the last cut, while MAS has eased to support growth, leaving the SGD softer in trade versus the loonie.
Risk/commodities: Oil remains above its three-month average with notable swings, and CAD tends to benefit when crude holds up, providing some support to the pair even as broader liquidity conditions stay uneven.
Macro factor: U.S. tariff risks weigh on Canadian exports, adding a clear headwind that could keep the loonie under pressure if policy stances stay unsettled.
Range: Expect the pair to drift within the three-month range, with a tilt toward the lower end as the week unfolds.
What could change it:
Upside risk: Oil prices staying firm or rising further could lift CAD on commodity-linked demand, especially if global risk appetite improves.
Downside risk: Prolonged trade tensions or additional tariff steps would weigh on Canadian shipments and push the pair toward the lower end of the range.
