The exchange rate forecast for the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the Thai baht (THB) reflects a combination of domestic economic conditions in Canada and external factors impacting both currencies. Currently, the CAD is trading at 22.72 THB, which is 1.5% below its three-month average of 23.07. This suggests a period of relative stability in the CAD/THB exchange rate, constrained within a tight range of 22.65 to 23.43.
Recent developments in Canada indicate that fluctuations in oil prices remain a significant factor influencing the CAD. Analysts note that the CAD typically rises with oil prices, as Canada is a major oil exporter. However, the recent trend shows oil has traded at 7-day highs around 62.29 USD but is still 2.0% below its three-month average of 63.54 USD. This volatility, with an 18.8% range between 59.04 and 70.13, emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the CAD's performance as it reacts to oil market dynamics.
Economic indicators from Canada, such as a 2.6% GDP growth in the third quarter and a decrease in unemployment to 6.5%, provide some support for the loonie, counterbalancing the negative effects of trade policy uncertainties stemming from tariffs imposed by the U.S. Additionally, the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision to maintain a 2.25% rate suggests a cautious stance amidst these economic pressures.
In Thailand, the baht has shown strength, appreciating by 2.2% against regional currencies in early December 2025. Key actions from the Bank of Thailand, such as tightening scrutiny on dollar transactions and reducing the policy interest rate to 1.25%, are aimed at stimulating economic growth. The Fiscal Policy Office’s forecast anticipates a stronger baht in 2026, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing capital inflows.
Given these circumstances, market experts suggest that the CAD/THB exchange rate will likely remain influenced by oil price trends and the differing monetary policies of Canada and Thailand. Maintaining awareness of these factors will be critical for individuals and businesses engaging in international transactions.
