The current exchange rate between the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the Thai baht (THB) stands at around 22.77, which marks a 90-day low and is approximately 1.4% below the three-month average of 23.09. The CAD has been experiencing a relatively stable trading range of 2.9%, fluctuating between 22.77 and 23.43.
Recent developments suggest that the CAD is being influenced significantly by oil prices, given Canada’s status as a major oil exporter. As of now, oil is trading at about $59.75 per barrel, which is 6.5% below its three-month average of $63.88, indicating ongoing volatility in the oil market. Analysts have noted that a rebound in oil prices typically supports the CAD, as higher prices contribute to increased revenues for the Canadian energy sector.
Market observers noted that despite a slight upward movement in oil prices recently, the CAD's performance remains cautious. Factors such as strong GDP growth in Canada—reported at an annualized rate of 2.6% for Q3—and a robust retail sales outlook might offer some support for the loonie. However, the Canadian manufacturing sector is currently in contraction, as indicated by a decline in the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI to 48.4 in November.
Conversely, the THB is facing pressures due to a stronger currency impacting export competitiveness coupled with negative inflation reported for the eighth consecutive month. The Bank of Thailand is also taking measures to curb the baht’s appreciation, likely signaling an interest rate cut to stimulate economic activity. Economists are forecasting a potential cut of 25 basis points in the near term to address these economic challenges.
Overall, forecasts remain cautious on the CAD/THB exchange rate outlook. With oil prices showing volatility and potential further cuts in interest rates from both central banks, the future direction of the CAD against the THB will closely follow these economic indicators along with global commodity trends. Businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions should remain vigilant and consider these dynamics when planning their currency exchanges.
