CAD/THB Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average yet lacks a clear driver to push it higher.
Key drivers:
• Monetary policy divergence is evident as the Bank of Canada maintained its interest rates while the Bank of Thailand is tightening regulations on gold trading, impacting currency stability.
• The Canadian dollar is currently supported by rising oil prices, which are trading significantly above their average, benefiting Canada's economy as a major oil exporter.
• The Thai baht has strengthened due to record high gold prices, although this appreciation may affect tourism and exports negatively.
Range: The CAD/THB pair is likely to drift within its recent range as the current position suggests stability.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A further increase in oil prices could boost the Canadian dollar stronger against the baht.
• Downside risk: Any action taken by global markets that leads to a drop in gold prices may pressure the Thai baht, impacting its exchange rate.
