The exchange rate forecast for the CAD to THB has been shaped by recent developments in both the Canadian and Thai economies, along with fluctuations in oil prices, a critical factor for the Canadian dollar. Analysts indicate that the CAD is experiencing some pressure due to adverse economic indicators, such as the loss of 40,800 jobs in July and a growing trade deficit of C$5.9 billion. These factors have led to increased speculation regarding potential rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, especially in light of the upcoming U.S. inflation data that could impact investor sentiment across North America.
Crude oil prices, currently around $64.18 per barrel, have provided some support to the CAD, as Canada is one of the world’s largest oil exporters. However, oil has been volatile, trading 3.8% below its three-month average of $68.46 and within a significant range of $62.78 to $78.85. The relationship between oil prices and the CAD is clear—rising oil prices typically strengthen the loonie, but continued declines could lead to further depreciation.
On the other hand, the Thai baht is influenced by its specific economic environment. Despite ongoing political instability, including the suspension of the Prime Minister and tensions with Cambodia, the Thai economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, supported by private consumption and tourism. Additionally, government initiatives like the digital wallet scheme and the approval of the Entertainment Complex Bill are expected to invigorate economic activity, maintaining investor interest in the THB.
Currently, the CAD to THB exchange rate stands at 23.46, which is 1.1% below its three-month average of 23.71. The CAD has been trading within a stable range of 23.37 to 23.96 over this period. This stability suggests a cautious market sentiment, as outside economic pressures exert influence on both currencies. Moving forward, market experts will monitor how the intertwining factors of oil prices, employment data, and political developments affect these two currencies and their ongoing exchange rate dynamics.
