CAD/ZAR Outlook:
The CAD/ZAR exchange rate is currently below its recent average and near the lower end of its 3-month range. Recent fluctuations in oil prices are weighing on the Canadian dollar, making a recovery challenging.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada is maintaining higher interest rates compared to the South African Reserve Bank, which has recently lowered its rates, putting the CAD at an advantage.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices currently at 7-day lows and significantly above their 3-month average, weaker crude prices negatively impact the commodity-linked CAD.
• Political developments: Political instability in South Africa is eroding investor confidence, adding uncertainty to the rand's performance despite some positive movements in gold prices.
Range:
Expect CAD/ZAR to remain stable, potentially drifting within its recent range as both currencies face respective pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant rebound in oil prices could support the CAD and strengthen its position.
• Downside risk: Any further political instability in South Africa could lead to increased volatility for the rand, impacting the CAD/ZAR rate.