CAD/ZAR Outlook:
The CAD/ZAR exchange rate is likely to decrease as it trades below its 90-day average and is near recent lows. Recent pressures on the CAD and relative strength of the ZAR suggest a downward trend.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained higher rates compared to the South African Reserve Bank, impacting the CAD's relative strength.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at 90-day highs, which typically supports the CAD, but the current downturn suggests mixed pressures.
• One macro factor: Rising gold prices enhance ZAR value through increased export earnings and foreign investment.
Range:
Expect movement within the recent range, possibly testing lower extremes due to prevailing economic pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant rise in oil prices could strengthen the CAD against the ZAR.
• Downside risk: Continued political instability in South Africa may pressure the ZAR further, impacting CAD/ZAR dynamics.