CAD/ZAR Outlook: Bearish, as the exchange rate is below its 90-day average and near recent lows, facing downward pressure from key developments.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates, while the South African Reserve Bank has adopted a more accommodative stance, which continues to support the Rand.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices have recently risen above average, but continued softness could dent Canadian commodity revenues, negatively impacting the CAD.
- One macro factor: The recent drop in Canadian exports to the U.S. due to tariffs is impacting the CAD's performance.
Range: The CAD/ZAR pair is likely to drift within its stable recent range, as external factors may weigh down further movement for the CAD.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A sharp rise in oil prices could bolster the CAD significantly.
- Downside risk: Continued economic instability in Canada may further weaken the loonie.