CAD/ZAR Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, pressured by current developments in Canada.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates, while the South African Reserve Bank has adopted a more accommodative stance, making the ZAR comparatively attractive.
• Risk/commodities: Oil is currently above its recent average, but if these prices decline, it could further harm the CAD, weakening its position against the ZAR.
• One macro factor: Canadian exports are suffering from recent trade policy uncertainties, impacting overall economic performance and currency strength.
Range: The CAD/ZAR pair is likely to drift lower within its recent range due to ongoing pressure.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: An unexpected rise in global oil prices could support the CAD and improve its value against the ZAR.
• Downside risk: Further cuts in Canadian interest rates or poor economic data releases could drive the CAD/ZAR lower.