CAD/ZAR Outlook:
The CAD/ZAR exchange rate is likely to decrease as it currently trades significantly below its recent average and is near recent lows. The impact of declining oil prices is putting further pressure on the Canadian dollar.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained higher interest rates compared to the South African Reserve Bank, which has reduced rates to boost growth, placing downward pressure on the CAD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, but recent easing trends could affect the CAD negatively, given that Canada heavily relies on oil exports.
• One macro factor: Recent political instability in South Africa is affecting the rand's stability, but rising gold prices provide some support by bolstering export incomes.
Range:
Expect the CAD/ZAR pair to drift within the recent range as it tests the lower end of trading levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant rise in oil prices could support a recovery in the CAD.
• Downside risk: Continued political instability in South Africa could lead to further depreciation of the rand.