The market bias for the CAD to ZAR exchange rate is bearish. Key drivers include a significant interest rate differential, with the South African Reserve Bank recently lowering rates, while the Bank of Canada's policy rate remains unchanged. The rising price of Brent Crude oil could support the CAD in the longer term, but recent softness in Canadian manufacturing signals economic weakness. Additionally, South Africa's projected economic growth and a new inflation target aim to stabilize the ZAR.
In the near term, the CAD/ZAR pair is expected to trade within a slightly lower range, maintaining 90-day lows, indicating sustained weakness. Upside risks could stem from unexpected recoveries in Canadian economic data or stronger oil prices, while downside risks may arise if the South African economy outperforms expectations or if further global economic uncertainties emerge.