Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as the CAD is currently below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada recently cut interest rates to support growth, while the South African Reserve Bank has shifted to a more accommodative policy, benefiting the ZAR.
- Risk/commodities: The recent increase in oil prices could support the CAD; however, it remains volatile, often reflecting broader market trends.
- One macro factor: The Canadian unemployment rate has risen, creating concerns about economic growth that may further pressure the CAD.
Range: CAD/ZAR is likely to drift within its recent range as it adjusts to economic conditions in both Canada and South Africa, testing either edge intermittently.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant rebound in oil prices could strengthen the CAD.
- Downside risk: Continued increases in Canadian unemployment or further tariffs on Canadian exports could weigh on the CAD.