CAD/ZAR Outlook:
The CAD/ZAR rate is likely to increase as it is trading above its recent average and near recent highs. Support from rising oil prices coupled with South Africa’s improving fiscal outlook provides a positive backdrop.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada continues a hawkish stance while the South African Reserve Bank adopts a stable inflation-targeting approach.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above average levels, which boosts the value of the CAD due to Canada’s position as a major oil exporter.
• One macro factor: South Africa's improved fiscal measures and credit rating upgrade enhance the attractiveness of the ZAR.
Range:
Expect CAD/ZAR to hold within the recent 3-month range but with potential to test the upper levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Further sustained increases in oil prices could strengthen the CAD.
• Downside risk: Any geopolitical developments affecting oil supply could negatively impact the CAD, while diminished confidence in fiscal stability might undermine the ZAR.