CAD/ZAR Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways as it trades below its recent average and is currently not driven by a single factor.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained its policy rate, while the South African Reserve Bank recently cut its rate, creating a divergence that may favor the CAD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above their recent average, supporting the CAD due to Canada's status as a major oil exporter.
• One macro factor: Stronger gold prices have positively influenced the South African rand, enhancing investor confidence in the ZAR.
Range: Movement in CAD/ZAR is expected to drift within the established range, without major tests of extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant rebound in oil prices could boost the CAD.
• Downside risk: Continued weakness in global economic conditions could pressure the rand and strengthen its performance against the CAD.