CAD/ZAR Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, mainly due to soft oil prices.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The Bank of Canada has maintained a cautious approach while the South African Reserve Bank has kept interest rates high, providing support for the ZAR.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices have been volatile and are currently above average, which could negatively impact the CAD as it is heavily linked to oil revenues.
- Macro factor: Political stability in South Africa from the formation of a government unity is strengthening the ZAR and building investor confidence.
Range:
The CAD/ZAR pair is expected to drift within its recent 3-month range as pressure mounts on the CAD.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant rebound in oil prices could bolster the CAD.
- Downside risk: Continued low demand for Canadian exports could further depress the CAD.