The CAD to ZAR exchange rate is currently bearish, reflecting recent shifts in economic conditions for both currencies.
Several factors are influencing this outlook. First, Canada’s interest rates are stable at 2.25% with expectations for an unchanged policy, while South Africa is reducing its repo rate to 6.75% to control inflation. This creates a widening interest rate differential favoring the CAD. Additionally, the Canadian economy's strength is shown by a significant job increase, while South Africa is expected to grow modestly, at 1.4% in 2026.
The CAD/ZAR is expected to trade within a stable range, reflecting its recent volatility. The pair currently stands 2.6% below its three-month average. Upside risks include a rise in oil prices benefiting the CAD, while downside risks could emerge from worsening global economic conditions impacting demand for commodities, including South African exports.