Recent developments in the Swiss franc (CHF) and Chinese yuan (CNY) exchange rate forecasts indicate a complex interplay of economic factors affecting both currencies.
Analysts highlight the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) increased foreign currency purchases, reaching 5.06 billion CHF in Q2 2025, marking its most significant intervention in over three years. This action was largely a response to the CHF's appreciation linked to U.S. tariffs on Swiss exports. The imposition of a 39% tariff by the Trump administration has created considerable pressure on Switzerland’s export-driven economy, prompting concerns among Swiss officials and businesses that are contemplating relocating operations to the U.S. to mitigate costs.
Despite these pressures, forecasts suggest that the SNB will maintain its policy rate at 0.00% through 2026, driven by stable inflation and a strong franc, even amid recent deflationary threats. The CHF's stability may be further supported by the SNB's commitment to not engage in competitive currency devaluation, an assurance reaffirmed in recent communications with the U.S. Treasury.
On the other hand, the Chinese yuan continues to see initiatives aimed at its internationalization and increased stability. The People's Bank of China is striving to promote the yuan's use in global trade and finance, actively working to mitigate excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate. This comes in the context of the yuan maintaining a stronger position against the U.S. dollar, recently reaching its highest level in 10 months. However, trade imbalances caused by the yuan's valuation are becoming a concern for European economies, as noted by U.S. Treasury critiques.
Currently, the CHF to CNY exchange rate stands at 90-day lows of approximately 8.8390, which is a notable 1.0% below its three-month average of 8.9257. This reflects a relatively stable trading pattern within a narrow range of 2.4%. Analysts suggest that the combination of ongoing economic stimulus in China and the pressures from the Swiss tariffs could continue to influence the movement of the CHF against the CNY.
In summary, while the CHF faces downward pressures due to aggressive U.S. trade policies, the CNY experiences targeted efforts by China to enhance its global currency standing. These dynamics make it essential for individuals and businesses to closely monitor these shifting trends in the CHF to CNY exchange rate to optimize their international transactions.
