The outlook for the CHF to CNY exchange rate is influenced by a mix of recent developments surrounding both the Swiss franc and the Chinese yuan. Analysts note that a significant catalyst for the Swiss economy is the U.S. decision to reduce tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%. This tariff reduction is expected to alleviate some pressure on Swiss exports, providing an estimated annual savings of $6 billion. However, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its policy rate at 0%, despite a recent decrease in inflation to 0%. Experts suggest that the SNB's cautious approach stems from the challenges posed by a substantial financial loss of CHF 15.3 billion in the first half of 2025.
UBS has lowered its forecasts for the Swiss franc, reflecting strong fundamentals but acknowledging global uncertainties that continue to drive demand for the franc as a defensive currency. This adjustment sees the EUR/CHF projected at 0.93 for September and 0.94 through June 2026, down from earlier estimates. The continued management of currency reserves amid these challenges is crucial for the SNB, which is grappling with foreign currency losses.
On the other side, the Chinese yuan is experiencing upward momentum, buoyed by strategic interventions from state-owned banks aimed at curtailing its appreciation. Analysts point to the ongoing strength of the yuan, which recently reached a 14-month high, supported by expectations of narrowing yield differentials between China and the U.S. Global investment firms are now forecasting that the yuan could strengthen beyond the critical 7-yuan-per-dollar mark in 2026 as trade relations improve.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively working to enhance the yuan's international standing while focusing on stimulating domestic demand to prevent depreciation. Economic reports indicate a surprising resilience in China's growth, recording a 5.2% rise for the last quarter, suggesting a recovery from earlier pandemic-related weaknesses.
Currently, the CHF to CNY exchange rate stands at 8.8625, just below its three-month average and trading within a stable range of 8.7633 to 9.0518. Factors such as the SNB's cautious monetary policy and the strengthening yuan due to domestic strategies will likely continue to influence this exchange rate dynamic in the coming months. Currency experts recommend that individuals and businesses closely monitor these developments, as they could significantly impact costs on international transactions.
