The Swiss franc (CHF) has experienced some downward adjustments in recent forecasts, with UBS highlighting strong fundamentals amid ongoing global uncertainties. Analysts have noted that the recent U.S. tariff reduction on Swiss goods from 39% to 15% could offer some relief to the Swiss economy, potentially stabilizing the franc in the medium term. However, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0% despite a recent dip in inflation to 0%, indicating that there will likely be no movement toward negative rates soon. This cautious monetary stance suggests that the CHF may remain relatively stable but under pressure due to internal economic challenges and the impact of previous tariffs.
Currently, the CHF to CNY exchange rate stands at 8.7915, which is 1.2% below its three-month average of 8.8986. This suggests that the franc is trading within a stable range, although it has shown fluctuations from 8.7727 to 9.0518 over this period. As UBS has revised its forecasts for EUR/CHF to 0.93 for September and 0.94 for June 2026, there is a clear indication that the market anticipates a subdued performance for the Swiss franc in the near term.
On the other hand, recent developments concerning the Chinese yuan (CNY) are leaning towards strengthening in the future. Major state-owned banks in China have been actively buying U.S. dollars to curb the yuan's appreciation, which recently hit a 14-month high, indicating the government’s commitment to managing currency valuation closely. Analysts suggest that the yuan may surpass the 7-yuan-per-dollar mark in 2026, fueled by narrowing interest rate differentials with the U.S. and improved trade relations. Continued government support aimed at bolstering domestic demand further reinforces expectations for yuan stability.
Overall, while the CHF may face challenges stemming from both domestic and international pressures, the CNY appears to be on a strengthening trajectory. This dynamic could impact future CHF to CNY exchange rates, and businesses involved in international transactions should consider these developments when planning their currency exchanges.
