Recent forecasts for the CHF to JPY exchange rate highlight several key developments affecting both currencies. Analysts emphasize the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) decision to maintain a 0% interest rate in light of economic uncertainties stemming from U.S. tariffs. This decision, announced on September 25, 2025, was influenced by the tariffs' negative impact on Switzerland's export-driven economy, particularly in machinery and watchmaking sectors.
The SNB has also increased its foreign currency purchases significantly, indicating efforts to stabilize the Swiss franc following its appreciation due to the tariffs. Despite an unexpected dip in Swiss inflation to 0.1% in October 2025, there are indications that the SNB may continue to take measures to mitigate currency volatility.
Conversely, the Japanese yen faces downward pressure due to a divergence in monetary policies, with the Bank of Japan maintaining low interest rates while the U.S. Treasury yield rises sharply. Following the election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister, expectations for expansionary fiscal policies have further contributed to the yen's depreciation. Analysts note that the yen's woes are compounded by concerns over increased government debt from planned fiscal stimulus measures.
In terms of exchange rate levels, the CHF to JPY is currently at a 7-day low of approximately 193.4, standing 2.5% above its 3-month average of 188.6. This range has seen peaks and troughs from 183.3 to 195.5, suggesting a relatively stable trading pattern despite broader economic instabilities. Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices, with current levels of Brent Crude OIL/USD at 62.56—4.4% lower than the 3-month average—could also impact the yen, as it is sensitive to energy price dynamics.
Overall, market experts suggest that the combination of Switzerland's export challenges due to tariffs and Japan's fiscal direction under new leadership will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the CHF to JPY exchange rate.
