The current exchange rate for CHF to JPY is 193.2, which is 1.6% above its three-month average of 190.1. The Swiss Franc has traded in a stable range from 184.5 to 195.5 recently. Analysts attribute the current strength of the CHF partly to recent changes in the U.S. tariff policy, which saw significant reductions on Swiss goods, potentially bolstering Switzerland's export outlook. This tariff relief is expected to bring substantial economic benefits, allowing the Swiss economy to maintain its robust export activity.
However, UBS has revised its forecasts for the Swiss Franc downward, citing global uncertainties and the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) decision to maintain a zero interest rate in light of very low inflation. Concerns are also growing regarding the SNB’s financial health following substantial losses reported in the first half of 2025, primarily due to foreign currency positions. These developments may put some pressure on the CHF in the medium term.
Conversely, the Japanese Yen is under pressure as it continues to be weak against major currencies, trading near 155 against the U.S. dollar. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to raise interest rates for the first time since January, from 0.5% to 0.75%. This potential hike aims to address ongoing inflation concerns but also reflects uncertainties in the trajectory of future rate increases. Economists warn that the weak yen could act as a significant threat to Japan's economic fundamentals, notably impacting purchasing power internationally.
Furthermore, the volatility in oil prices could indirectly affect the JPY's performance. With recent oil prices trading at 14-day highs near 63.75, albeit slightly below the three-month average, fluctuations in energy costs can have opposite effects on the JPY, depending on the nature of Japan’s current account balance influenced by oil imports.
In summary, the CHF could experience mixed influences in the coming months due to the interplay of favorable tariff changes and internal economic pressures from the SNB, while the JPY may face challenges associated with the BOJ's rate adjustments and ongoing concerns over its weakness. This complex landscape suggests that businesses and individuals engaging in currency exchange should stay informed and potentially consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks.
