Recent developments in the exchange rate forecast for the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the Turkish Lira (TRY) indicate a mixed outlook influenced by both domestic and global factors. As of December 4, 2025, the CHF to TRY exchange rate is at a noteworthy peak of 53.64, surpassing its 90-day average of 52.54 by 2.1%. This rate has remained stable within a 3.6% range, showing resilience in a challenging global economic environment.
Analysts have noted that the recent reduction of U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods is expected to provide substantial cost relief, potentially bolstering Switzerland's trade balance and supporting the CHF in the long term. However, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) faces ongoing challenges, evidenced by a substantial loss of CHF 15.3 billion for the first half of 2025 largely attributed to fluctuations in foreign currency positions. Despite these setbacks, the SNB is likely to maintain its policy rate at 0%, avoiding negative interest rates even as inflation has dropped to 0%.
On the Turkish side, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) recently cut the policy interest rate to 39.5%. This adjustment suggests a slowdown in monetary easing, raising concerns about the inflation outlook, which the CBRT estimates will reach 24% by the end of 2025. However, some economists argue that inflation may exceed this target, thereby exerting further pressure on the TRY. The lira has also been affected by political instability, particularly following significant events that have contributed to market volatility.
Experts at UBS have adjusted their forecasts for the Swiss Franc downward, indicating a potential preference for the CHF as a defensive currency amid ongoing global uncertainties. This sentiment suggests that despite domestic challenges within Switzerland, the franc may maintain its strength against the TRY, especially if Turkish inflation remains volatile and economic growth falters.
Overall, the CHF/TRY exchange rate is influenced by a combination of favorable trade developments for Switzerland and enduring monetary policy difficulties in Turkey. For individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions, careful monitoring of these economic indicators will be essential in navigating currency risks and opportunities effectively.
