The exchange rate forecast for the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the Turkish Lira (TRY) appears complex, influenced by recent economic trends and uncertainties. As of October 2025, the CHF to TRY rate stands at 52.34, which is 2.1% above its three-month average of 51.24, indicating relative strength in the CHF amidst various domestic and international challenges.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a zero interest rate policy since September 2025, projecting to continue this rate throughout 2026. This decision reflects steady inflation within its target range and the stability of the CHF. However, analysts note that the IMF has downgraded Switzerland's economic growth forecast, citing external risks such as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties. These factors have generated speculation about possible interventions by the SNB to weaken the CHF, particularly following a significant surge in sight deposits that reached the highest levels since April 2024.
The imposition of high trade tariffs by the U.S. on Swiss exports has compounded pressure on the Swiss economy. The resulting volatility in the CHF has raised concerns about its long-term strength, especially given the historical role of the currency as a safe haven.
Conversely, the Turkish Lira faces significant pressures as it contends with an inflation rate that has surged to 33.29% in September 2025, the first rise since mid-2024. In response, the Central Bank of Turkey raised its overnight lending rate to 46% earlier in March to stabilize the lira. However, the termination of the FX-protected deposit scheme in August adds to the uncertainty surrounding the TRY, as this measure had previously aimed to stabilize the currency but incurred substantial costs.
Given these circumstances, currency analysts suggest that the CHF could face continued upward pressure against the TRY, supported by stable domestic conditions in Switzerland and ongoing inflationary challenges in Turkey. However, investors should remain cautious, as external factors and potential SNB interventions could lead to fluctuations in the CHF/TRY exchange rate moving forward.
