Recent forecasts and market updates reveal a complex outlook for the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the Turkish Lira (TRY) amid significant economic pressures in both countries. Analysts have noted the adverse impact of a 39% tariff imposed by the United States on Swiss exports, leading to a marked slowdown in Switzerland's economy, which grew a mere 0.1% in Q2 2025. The tariffs are expected to challenge the export-driven Swiss economy, as they affect a substantial portion of its goods. Additionally, the Swiss National Bank's decision to lower interest rates to 0% and the prospect of reintroducing negative rates signify a proactive response to handle deflation and sluggish economic conditions. The IMF has also downgraded Switzerland’s GDP growth forecast, further reflecting the headwinds facing the CHF.
In contrast, the Turkish Lira is navigating its own set of challenges. The phasing out of the FX-protected deposit scheme, intended to stabilize the lira against depreciation, could add to volatility as it concludes by the end of 2025. Furthermore, Turkey’s central bank reduced interest rates by 300 basis points to 43% in July, hoping to stabilize the economy amidst political unrest and inflationary pressures. Recent economic assessments predict that Turkey’s GDP growth rate will fall short of official targets, signaling a potential downturn in investor confidence.
The current exchange rate for CHF to TRY sits at 51.34, reflecting a 3.0% increase above its three-month average of 49.83, within a volatile range of 47.51 to 51.38. This volatility indicates a market reacting to both domestic economic indicators and broader geopolitical factors. As both currencies face significant uncertainties, stakeholders are urged to stay vigilant and consider how these developments may impact their international transactions. Financial experts advise individuals and businesses to closely monitor ongoing trends, as fluctuations in these currencies can present both risks and opportunities.
