The USD to EGP exchange rate has experienced some fluctuations recently, influenced by a blend of U.S. economic indicators and developments in Egypt. As of the latest data, the USD is trading at 48.49 EGP, which is 1.7% below its three-month average of 49.33 EGP. The exchange rate has remained relatively stable within a narrow range of 5.7%, trading between 48.18 and 50.91 EGP.
Analysts highlight that the U.S. dollar saw a rebound due to unexpectedly strong manufacturing and services PMIs, which suggests resilience in the U.S. economy. However, a risk-off sentiment in the market alongside rising jobless claims adds a layer of uncertainty. Observers are closely monitoring the upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell; if he signals a dovish shift in monetary policy, it could lead to a depreciation of the USD.
On the other hand, the Egyptian pound faces downward pressure amid revised economic growth forecasts, with GDP growth expectations adjusted to 3.8% for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, amid concerns about global tariffs and economic performance. The approval of a $1.2 billion disbursement from the IMF is seen as a supportive factor, but continued depreciation of the EGP is anticipated, potentially reaching 51.1 EGP per USD by mid-2026.
Fuel price increases, part of the IMF's reform program, have added to inflationary pressures in Egypt, further complicating the economic landscape. The recent tense U.S.-China trade relations and global dedollarization trends may also affect currency dynamics, as countries gradually seek alternatives to the dollar.
Overall, the market remains cautious about USD to EGP trends, with various domestic and international factors poised to influence future movements. Readers should remain alert to economic reports and geopolitical developments that could impact exchange rates in the coming months.
