Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, EUR/CAD sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: ECB policy remains neutral; BoC has cut to a level that supports growth, narrowing the gap and leaving CAD more responsive to oil-driven moves, a dynamic exporters watch closely.
• Oil trend: oil has climbed to multi-week highs, boosting CAD and pressuring EUR/CAD as energy markets drive the loonie, with global demand still a consideration.
• Macro factor: ECB policy stays neutral for 2026, keeping rate expectations muted and limiting upside for the euro, especially when inflation prints stay modest.
Range: EUR/CAD should drift within the three-month band, testing the lower end if oil resilience persists and US data trend remains mixed.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: oil retreats, reducing CAD support and lifting EUR/CAD toward the upper end of the range.
• Downside risk: oil stays firm or climbs, boosting CAD and pushing EUR/CAD lower toward the bottom of the range.