Bias: bullish-to-range-bound, EUR/CHF sits above its 90-day average and in the upper half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: the ECB’s policy rate remains higher than the SNB’s stance, supporting euro strength against the Swiss franc as data stay supportive.
• Risk/commodities: Oil trades above its longer-term average with notable volatility, lifting eurozone inflation expectations and helping EUR hold ground versus CHF, with energy sensitivity lingering.
• Macro factor: eurozone inflation trends are easing and growth looks solid, keeping ECB policy neutral but enabling EUR resilience versus CHF, with room for data-driven moves.
Range: EUR/CHF is expected to drift within the three-month corridor, with a bias toward the high end as buyers test resistance but not commit to a break.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger eurozone data or an earlier ECB tilt toward tightening could push EUR higher against CHF, attracting further demand from exporters hedging costs.
• Downside risk: a shift from the SNB toward policy tightening if the franc strengthens further could cap euro gains and provoke renewed hedging activity.
