Bias: The bias for EUR/CHF is range-bound, as it is trading near the 90-day average and within the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• The European Central Bank is likely to maintain a neutral rate policy, while the Swiss National Bank keeps a 0% rate, reflecting contrasting monetary policy positions that affect currency values.
• Recent oil prices are significantly above average, which can impact European inflation and economic activity, influencing the euro's strength versus the franc.
• The Eurozone's projected economic growth of 1.6% in 2026 may support the euro but is offset by concerns from underwhelming trade data and EU geopolitical challenges.
Range: The EUR/CHF is expected to drift within the recently established range, maintaining stability unless significant external pressures arise.
What could change it:
• An unexpected spike in Eurozone growth could support euro appreciation against the franc.
• A further drop in Swiss exports due to external tariffs could weaken the franc and alter its strength relative to the euro.
