The current bias for the EUR/CHF exchange rate is range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- The European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a data-dependent approach, influencing the euro's value as it manages interest rates for economic growth.
- The Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently cut rates to address easing inflation, supporting the Swiss franc's strength amid economic challenges.
- Economic projections for the Eurozone show a modest GDP growth rate, while Switzerland faces pressure from tariffs impacting exports, creating uncertainty.
The near-term trading range for EUR/CHF is expected to remain stable around recent highs, likely within the existing 1.9% range observed.
Upside risks include potential positive developments, such as improved geopolitical stability in Europe, while downside risks involve further tariff escalations impacting the Swiss economy and currency.