Bias: range-bound, as EUR/CHF sits near the 90-day average and in the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: ECB policy is expected to stay neutral, while the SNB keeps policy at zero with a risk of negative rates if the franc strengthens, keeping EUR-CHF moves tied to euro data and franc strength.
- Oil price action: oil trades near 30-day highs with notable volatility, which can lift euro-area inflation expectations and support EUR against CHF, though gains may be tempered by risk-off flows.
- Macro: Eurozone inflation is easing, supporting a steady ECB stance and a stable EUR/CHF path, as growth resilience and energy costs shape policy signals.
Range: The pair is likely to hold within its 3-month range, with a gentle drift as data and policy cues flow, and occasional testing of the mid-ground.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger-than-expected eurozone growth or signals of a firmer ECB stance could lift EUR higher versus CHF.
- Downside risk: MUFG Bank notes that if the franc stays strong, the SNB could cut rates.
