Bias: range-bound, as EUR/CZK sits near the 90-day average and in the middle of its 3-month range, with light data flow.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: CNB's policy rate remains notably higher than the ECB's, keeping CZK supported against EUR even when global risk appetite shifts.
Risk/commodities: Oil trades near recent highs with elevated volatility, feeding into euro area inflation expectations and shaping how markets price risk, which can influence EUR strength.
Macro factor: Czech inflation staying close to the target and solid growth underpin the koruna's resilience, even as external headwinds persist.
Range: EUR/CZK is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with moves centered around the middle and limited by policy gaps, as investors await upcoming data.
What could change it:
Upside risk: ECB signals earlier or stronger policy action if euro-area inflation surprises to the upside, lifting euro demand.
Downside risk: CNB hints at faster easing or softer growth, weighing on CZK and narrowing rate differentials.
