The current bias for the EUR to IDR exchange rate is bearish, with the euro facing downward pressure. Key drivers include the European Central Bank's cautious stance on the euro's strength to control inflation, while Indonesia's Bank Indonesia has implemented measures to stabilize the rupiah amid recent depreciation. Additionally, projected economic growth in the Eurozone may not sufficiently boost the euro, considering the ongoing geopolitical tensions associated with the Ukraine war.
Near-term, the EUR to IDR is expected to trade within a stable range, reflecting recent low volatility. The exchange rate recently shows a slight decline, sitting near 19639, with minimal fluctuation from a three-month average of 19392.
Potential upside risks could arise from positive economic indicators in Germany or improved consumer confidence, while a downside risk may stem from escalating geopolitical tensions or deteriorating global trade dynamics.