EUR/IDR Outlook:
The EUR/IDR is currently trading above its 90-day average and remains within its mid-range. This positions the euro positively, but the lack of a clear driver may cause it to move sideways.
Key drivers:
• Interest rate comparisons show the European Central Bank's cautious stance, which may support the euro against the rupiah as investors seek stability.
• Oil prices have surged, which can benefit the euro as higher oil typically strengthens its value relative to the Indonesian rupiah, given Indonesia's reliance on energy imports.
• Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, may bolster the euro while creating uncertainty for the Indonesian economy.
Range:
Movement is likely to hold steady within the recent trading range, with potential for minor fluctuations.
What could change it:
• A significant resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could boost the euro further, enhancing its appeal.
• Escalating political instability in Indonesia, such as protests or economic policy backlash, may weaken the rupiah and influence the exchange rate dynamics.