Forecasts for EUR to IDR
The recent exchange rate forecasts for the EUR to IDR pair reflect a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic data, and central bank policies. Currently, the euro is trading at around 18,647 IDR, which is 3.5% above its three-month average of 18,011 IDR. This level has been influenced by volatility, with the euro having traded within a significant range of 15% from 16,847 to 19,370 IDR.
Recent political developments in Germany, particularly the uncertainty surrounding Chancellor-Designate Friedrich Merz's ability to secure a majority, have placed some pressure on the euro. However, positive economic signals such as a projected rise in German factory orders could bolster the currency. Analysts suggest that the euro may benefit from a decline in the US dollar amid subdued economic expectations from the US.
The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to exert significant influence over the euro, with sanctions against Russia and disruptions in energy supplies creating uncertainty for the Eurozone economy. Financial and military support for Ukraine from the EU and its response to the energy crisis will be crucial factors shaping the euro's future performance. Should the geopolitical tensions ease, analysts expect a potential recovery in euro strength. Conversely, further escalation may lead to increased market volatility.
In contrast, the Indonesian rupiah has experienced severe depreciation, reaching its lowest historic level against the US dollar amid rising trade tensions and reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. The latest increases in tariffs have added to the selling pressure on the rupiah, which fell past 17,000 IDR per dollar, a level not seen since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998. Concerns regarding fiscal policies under President Prabowo Subianto further complicate the currency's outlook.
The correlation between oil prices and currency values is also relevant, as the euro can be impacted by movements in oil prices. Currently, oil is trading at 62.15 USD, which is 11.2% below its three-month average of 69.95 USD. Given the Eurozone's dependence on energy imports, fluctuations in oil prices could play a role in influencing the euro's strength against the rupiah.
Overall, the EUR to IDR exchange rate is likely to be influenced by a mix of political stability in the Eurozone, economic data releases, global geopolitical developments, and the broader trends in commodity prices. Investors and businesses engaged in international transactions should closely monitor these factors to navigate potential risks and optimize their currency conversion strategies.
