The current market bias for the EUR to IDR exchange rate is bearish.
Key drivers include:
- Interest rates: The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a flexible interest rate policy, which may impact the euro's value against the IDR.
- Economic growth: The Eurozone's projected 1.6% growth in 2026 could support the euro, while Indonesia's efforts to stabilize the rupiah amid global uncertainties play a crucial role.
- Oil prices: With oil trading below its 3-month average, fluctuations in energy prices could influence both currencies, considering Europe's energy reliance.
In the near term, the EUR to IDR is expected to trade in a range reflecting its recent stability, though it recently hit 14-day lows.
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone, while downside risks involve continued depreciation maneuvers by Bank Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah.