EUR/IDR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear current driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank's cautious stance contrasts with Bank Indonesia's interventions to combat rupiah depreciation, impacting the euro's relative strength.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at recent highs, which could support the euro, but also increase inflationary pressures for the Eurozone, making the outlook uncertain.
• One macro factor: The eurozone’s GDP print will be closely watched; signs of moderated growth could create additional challenges for the euro.
Range: EUR/IDR is likely to drift as it operates above its recent average, within a stable range observed over the past three months.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected GDP report from the Eurozone could bolster the euro.
• Downside risk: Renewed geopolitical tensions or negative economic indicators could weigh on the euro's value.
