The market bias for EUR/IDR is currently range-bound, reflecting limited volatility.
Key drivers include:
- The European Central Bank's decision to maintain rates, indicating a cautious approach to potential euro appreciation which may ease inflation.
- Indonesia's proactive measures from Bank Indonesia to stabilize the rupiah amid its recent depreciation, influencing demand dynamics.
- The eurozone's growth projections of 1.6% for 2026, bolstered by fiscal measures, while Indonesia’s inflation target remains at 2.62%.
In the near term, the EUR/IDR trading range is expected to remain stable, reflecting the recent activity around 19,586, slightly above its 3-month average.
An upside risk includes improvements in Eurozone consumer confidence, while a downside risk remains from global commodity price volatility, particularly as oil prices trend lower. The current oil price is significantly below its recent average, potentially impacting both currencies.