The recent trajectory of the EUR to INR exchange rate reflects a complex interplay of geopolitical dynamics, central bank policies, and economic fundamentals. As of late November 2025, the euro has been trading at approximately 103.4 INR, reaching 30-day highs and maintaining a narrow trading range between 101.8 to 104.9 INR. This positioning is slightly above its three-month average, indicating a relatively stable outlook for the euro against the Indian rupee.
Sentiment towards the euro has been mixed recently, influenced by improved market conditions. Analysts note a risk-on environment where the euro has shown some weakness against riskier currencies, despite potential supportive factors such as anticipated improvements in German consumer confidence and Eurozone economic sentiment. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) has shifted towards a more dovish monetary stance, with forecasts suggesting a possible rate cut from the current 4.0% to 3.5% by late 2025. This shift narrows the interest rate differential with the U.S. Federal Reserve and could weigh on the euro's strength moving forward.
On the other hand, the Indian rupee has faced significant downward pressure, recently hitting a historical low of 88.62 against the U.S. dollar due to various external and internal factors, including increased visa fees that deter foreign inflows and weak manufacturing exports. Market experts suggest that this adverse sentiment is likely to keep the rupee under stress, contributing to fluctuations in the EUR/INR exchange rate.
The global financial conditions, particularly financial stability in the Eurozone and the ongoing geopolitical tensions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to significantly affect the euro's exchange rate. Additionally, movements in oil prices, currently trading at around $63.07, slightly below its three-month average, could also influence the EUR/INR rate, as oil remains a critical component of inflation and economic performance in both regions.
As external factors evolve and the ECB maintains its policy course, market participants would be wise to monitor developments closely, as these factors will inform the future trajectory of both the euro and the rupee in the context of international transactions.
