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    Currency outlook EUR/JPY

    EUR to JPY Forecast & Outlook

    Latest EUR to JPY forecasts including bank predictions, key market drivers and recent trends for EUR/JPY. See where analysts expect the pair to move and the factors likely to influence it.

    EUR to JPY Forecast & Outlook

    11 Aug 2026 • 00:26 GMT

    EUR/JPY 183.8

    Forecast snapshot

    Quick EUR/JPY forecast

    Near-term bias🔴 Mild downside
    Expected range183.8000 – 187.4000
    Dominant driver🌍 Global risk sentiment
    3-month trend⚪ Range-bound

    Currently, EUR/JPY is trading close to its 3-month average near 183.8, supported by risk-off flows amid geopolitical tensions. The pair is trading within its recent range and constrained near recent highs, but risk sentiment remains the dominant driver. Over the next few sessions, the pair may face downward pressure if risk aversion intensifies or safe-haven yen inflows increase, keeping the bias towards a weaker euro near term.

    💸 Transfer implications

    • Expats: sending money to Japan may find yen conversions less favourable than recent levels if the pair declines.
    • Travellers: exchanging euros for Japanese Yen could see less favourable rates if the pair weakens.
    • Businesses: paying Japanese Yen invoices with euros might experience slightly higher costs if the pair continues to fall.

    🧭 Key drivers

    • Rate gap: The US-Japan interest rate differential favors yen support, with the Japanese yen supported by rate policies.
    • Risk/commodities: Elevated geopolitical risks support safe-haven flows into JPY, pressuring EUR/JPY.
    • Global factors: Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heighten risk aversion, reinforcing yen demand.

    ⚠️ What could change it

    • Upside risk: A resolution of geopolitical issues or reduced risk aversion could support euro strength and reverse current yen flows.
    • Downside risk: Unexpected escalation of geopolitical tensions or further dollar strength might deepen yen gains and push EUR/JPY lower.

    BER suggestions: Comparison of FX providers may help offset less favourable exchange conditions and reduce total transfer costs.

    EURJPY Bank Forecasts to end of the year

    The outlook for the EUR/JPY pair to the end of the year remains mixed among major banks. ING forecasts the pair to reach 186, showing potential stabilization at this level into next year. Meanwhile, their alternative analysis suggests the EUR/JPY could average around 181 due to the yen's funding appeal. MUFG also projects the pair to be around 181 by the end of 2026, reflecting a trend of minor appreciation from earlier in the year.

    Big bank views

    • ING expects EUR/JPY to hit 186 by the end of 2026, maintaining a similar level into 2027.
    • An alternative ING forecast sees the pair averaging around 181 in Q4 2026.
    • MUFG projects the EUR/JPY to reach approximately 181 by the end of 2026.

    What could change the outlook

    • Any deviation from expected monetary policy actions by the Bank of Japan could impact the yen's strength.
    • Geopolitical tensions and global economic developments might influence market sentiment and affect both the euro and yen indirectly.

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    Rate direction

    EUR to JPY market data

    Euro (EUR) to Japanese yen (JPY) market data - latest interbank exchange rate, trend, chart & historic rates.

    Sell EUR   →   Buy JPY
    1 EUR =
    183.82We compare provider deals to this wholesale mid-market rate. Read more
    JPY
    1D+0.8%▲
    EUR to JPY at 183.8 is just 0.5% below its 3-month average of 184.8, having traded in a very stable 3.7% range from 180.8 to 187.4
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    Will the Euro rise against the Japanese yen?

    This is always a difficult question as exchange rates are influenced by many factors, so a good method to consider the euro vs Japanese yen current value is to look the EUR/JPY historic rate and change over a range of periods.

    The following table looks at the change in the EUR to JPY exchange rate over periods from the previous week back to the last 10 years.

    DateEUR/JPYChangePeriod
    28 Jul 2026
    186.58
    		1.5% ▼2 Week
    13 May 2026
    184.95
    		0.7% ▼3 Month
    11 Aug 2025
    172.10
    		6.8% ▲1 Year
    12 Aug 2021
    129.57
    		41.8% ▲5 Year
    13 Aug 2016
    113.14
    		62.4% ▲10 Year
    16 Aug 2006
    148.89
    		23.4% ▲20 Year
    EUR/JPY historic rates & change to 11-Aug-2026

    It is almost impossible to predict what an exchange rate will do in the future, the best approach is to monitor the currency markets and transact when an exchange rate moves in your favour.

    To help with this you can add EUR/JPY to your personalised Rate Tracker to track and benefit from currency movements.

     
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