EUR/MXN Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is currently below its recent average and lacks a strong driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank has adopted a cautious approach, with no imminent rate hikes, while the Bank of Mexico is maintaining a higher interest rate, supporting the peso.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently elevated, which may benefit the Mexican peso as it is sensitive to energy market trends.
• One macro factor: Mexico's GDP growth forecast for 2026 suggests stable economic performance, counterbalancing any short-term pressures on the peso.
Range: The EUR/MXN is likely to drift within its recent range, possibly staying stable as it trades close to 14-day highs.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant rebound in Eurozone retail sales could strengthen the euro against the peso.
• Downside risk: Unexpected adjustments in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement could create uncertainty for the peso, pushing it lower.