EUR/MXN Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, influenced by a weaker euro and Mexican economic policies.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank's neutral stance contrasts with the Bank of Mexico's held interest rates, favoring the peso.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently at a 90-day high, which usually strengthens the peso due to Mexico's oil exports, contrasting with the euro's struggles.
• Global Economic Trends: The weak growth forecast for Mexico, with GDP projected to rise only modestly in 2026, adds pressure on the peso but creates concerns for the euro as well.
Range: EUR/MXN is expected to drift within its recent range, remaining around current levels without testing extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A shift in ECB policy toward tightening could lift the euro against the peso.
• Downside risk: Continued economic challenges in the Eurozone or further strength in oil prices could pressure the euro lower.