Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as the current level is below the 90-day average and sitting in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is likely to maintain a neutral policy, while the Bank of Mexico's steady interest rate could pressure the peso lower.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above their 3-month average, which may support the peso due to Mexico's oil exports.
• Economic growth: Mexico's GDP growth forecast for 2026 is anticipated to be modest, suggesting limited strength for the peso.
Range: Movement in EUR/MXN is expected to hold within a stable range, given recent fluctuations.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in Eurozone economic indicators could strengthen the euro.
• Downside risk: Further negative data from Germany or the Eurozone could push the euro lower against the peso.