EUR/MXN Outlook:
The EUR/MXN rate is currently trading near recent lows and is below its 90-day average. With no strong driving factors to support it, the outlook is bearish, indicating potential continued pressure on the euro against the peso.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is likely to maintain a dovish approach while the Bank of Mexico is cautious in managing inflation, impacting the euro's competitiveness.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices significantly above average, the euro may face additional pressure as higher energy costs strain the Eurozone economy.
• One macro factor: Persistent core inflation in Mexico is expected to delay Banxico's target for inflation reduction, which could keep the peso stable or stronger.
Range:
Movement is likely to drift within the recent range, showing limited potential to test extremes without a significant catalyst.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive resolution in geopolitical tensions or favorable economic data from the Eurozone could boost the euro.
• Downside risk: Further deterioration in the economic outlook for Germany could weigh on the euro more significantly.