Forecasts for EUR to MXN
Recent analyses regarding the EUR to MXN exchange rate reveal a complex interplay of factors impacting both currencies. The euro is currently trading near 90-day highs around 23.08 MXN, which is a notable increase of 6.5% from its three-month average of 21.67 MXN. This movement has taken place within a volatile range of 21.02 to 23.08 MXN over the last three months. The recent strengthening of the euro can be attributed to positive political developments in Germany, where coalition talks between the CDU and SPD have been successful. Analysts suggest that this political stability, alongside a cooling demand for the US dollar, may allow the euro to sustain its upward momentum for the near term.
Conversely, the Mexican peso has experienced erratic fluctuations, primarily influenced by developments related to trade tariffs from the US and negotiations to mitigate their potential impacts. Following President Biden's agreement to delay the imposition of 25% tariffs, the peso initially rallied as traders reacted positively to the possibility of reduced trade tensions between Mexico and the US. However, ongoing volatility persists as uncertainties remain regarding the long-term repercussions of proposed tariffs and retaliatory measures from Mexican authorities. Economists note that while there may be optimism for negotiations, the peso's performance will hinge on ongoing diplomatic efforts and wider economic trends.
Additionally, oil prices, which have recently traded at 12.2% below their three-month average of 73.75 USD, at 64.76 USD, can significantly affect both currencies due to the Eurozone's dependency on energy imports and Mexico's status as an oil-exporting nation. The volatile range of oil prices, from 61.58 to 82.16 USD, points to broader market instability that could further complicate the outlook for both currencies.
Looking ahead, the euro's trajectory will largely rely on the European Central Bank's monetary policies, particularly regarding interest rates, which directly impact the euro's strength. In contrast, the peso's future will depend on developments in US-Mexico trade relations and the overall economic sentiment in the region. Forecasters remain attentive to these developments, which may offer opportunities for individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions using these currencies.
