The current market bias for the EUR to MXN exchange rate is range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- The interest rate differential is narrowing as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a flexible policy approach, while the Mexican central bank (Banxico) is expected to implement fewer rate cuts.
- The eurozone shows positive growth projections, with a GDP growth forecast of 1.6% for 2026, buoyed by fiscal measures and increased military spending across Europe.
- Oil prices are nearing 7-day highs but remain volatile, which can indirectly affect the euro as energy prices impact the broader economy.
The near-term trading range is likely to remain stable, reflecting a slight decline from the recent 21.02, which is 1.2% below its 3-month average of 21.27.
An upside risk could stem from unexpected ECB policy tightening, while a downside risk may arise from slower economic growth in Mexico or geopolitical tensions that affect trade dynamics in the eurozone.