EUR/NZD Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, pressured by current euro and NZD developments.
Key drivers:
• Interest rates: The European Central Bank has maintained interest rates, but the New Zealand Reserve Bank may cut rates, benefiting the NZD.
• Oil influence: Rising oil prices, now at 7-day highs, strengthen the NZD as it boosts dairy and agricultural exports.
• Geopolitical tensions: Ongoing concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict are undermining the euro, impacting its value.
Range:
Expect EUR/NZD to drift within its recent range as it tests the lows.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could bolster the euro’s position.
• Downside risk: Further dovish signals from the RBNZ ahead of their meeting could weigh on the NZD.