EUR/NZD Outlook:
The EUR/NZD currency pair is likely to decrease, currently trading below its recent average and near 7-day lows. The euro faces pressure from weakening German economic data, while the New Zealand dollar may be supported by improving business confidence forecasts.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining interest rates amid economic uncertainty, which contrasts with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's less aggressive stance on future hikes.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above their 3-month average, which could increase import costs for the Eurozone, weighing on the euro.
• One macro factor: A projected rise in New Zealand business confidence is expected to support the NZD today, aligning with the current risk-on mood.
Range:
The EUR/NZD is expected to drift within its recent range, potentially testing lower extremes as euro weakness persists.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise improvement in Eurozone economic data could bolster the EUR.
• Downside risk: Continued declines in New Zealand dairy prices may further pressure the NZD.