EUR/NZD Outlook:
Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows amid pressure from a weaker NZD and ECB decisions.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates contrasts with expectations for potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, favoring the EUR.
• Risk/commodities: The recent increase in oil prices may offer slight support to the NZD, but overall risk sentiment remains shaky due to labor market concerns.
• One macro factor: The NZD is facing pressure following an unexpected rise in unemployment, which has raised concerns about economic momentum in New Zealand.
Range:
The EUR/NZD is expected to drift within its recent range, facing challenges to test higher levels.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise decision by the RBNZ to delay interest rate cuts could strengthen the NZD.
• Downside risk: Continued deterioration in New Zealand's labor market could lead to further losses for the NZD.