Bias: Range-bound, current level is below the 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the 3-month range (range-bound means the pair is expected to trade within a bounded band rather than trend).
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The ECB’s policy path remains relatively firmer than NZ easing, narrowing NZD’s yield advantage and supporting EUR/NZD.
• Risk/commodities: Oil’s rise and volatility reflect shifting risk appetite; higher oil tends to support commodity currencies when appetite improves, which could cap EUR/NZD gains.
• One macro factor: AU CPI/jobs timing: The upcoming Australian inflation and employment data could shift risk appetite and influence cross-rate flows.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within its recent range, with a test of the lower end possible if risk appetite weakens.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Hawkish ECB signals or stronger eurozone data that push EUR higher versus NZD.
• Downside risk: A renewed risk-off mood or stronger NZD from domestic data that weighs on EUR/NZD.
