Recent forecasts and updates suggest a dynamic landscape for the EUR/NZD exchange rate. As of mid-November 2025, the euro (EUR) is buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar, which has provided a supportive backdrop despite a downward revision in November's Eurozone manufacturing PMI. Analysts anticipate that the euro may strengthen further, particularly if upcoming inflation data reinforces the view that the European Central Bank (ECB) has concluded its interest rate hike cycle.
The ECB's shift towards a dovish monetary policy is notable, as it raised interest rates to 4.0% earlier in 2024 but now signals a potential cut to 3.5% by late 2025 due to slowing economic growth. This development could reduce the interest rate differential between the euro and other currencies, including the New Zealand dollar (NZD). In contrast, the EUR has appreciated significantly against the USD this year, reflecting a growing investor confidence in the Eurozone's economic stabilization amid geopolitical tensions and energy crises.
On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) faces challenges such as an increased unemployment rate of 5.3% and a surprising 50 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in October. This suggests rising concerns regarding economic growth that may hinder upside potential for the NZD. Additionally, New Zealand's inflation rate, having reached 3%, is at the upper limit of the RBNZ's target range, creating further uncertainty about future monetary policy adjustments.
The current exchange rate of EUR/NZD at approximately 2.0247 is slightly above its three-month average, oscillating within a stable 5% range. Market analysts suggest that ongoing risk appetite and global financial conditions will continue to influence the performance of both currencies. Meanwhile, oil prices, trading at $62.45 and showing volatility, could also indirectly affect the euro, given the energy crisis’ impact on the Eurozone's economy.
In summary, the outlook for the EUR/NZD exchange rate will largely depend on forthcoming economic data, the respective central bank policies, and broader market sentiment. The euro's strength may persist provided that inflation remains high and stabilization measures within the Eurozone yield results, while the NZD's vulnerabilities could lead to further fluctuations as local economic challenges unfold.
