Bias: range-bound, current EUR/NZD sits near the 90-day average and in the middle of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The ECB is expected to keep policy unchanged for now while the RBNZ continues easing, which tends to push EUR/NZD higher when NZD stays soft; any tweak from the ECB that narrows the gap could cap that move.
• Risk/commodities: Oil remains above its 3-month average with notable volatility, a pattern that tends to support the NZD and pressure EUR/NZD on days of oil gains.
• One macro factor: Eurozone inflation trends easing toward target keep the ECB policy stance neutral and data-driven, reducing the risk of near-term euro strength or weakness surprises.
Range: EUR/NZD is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with a mild tilt toward the middle unless a clear driver pushes it toward the edges.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger Eurozone data or an earlier ECB signal to tilt policy less dovishly could lift EUR.
• Downside risk: the NZD benefits from softer RBNZ easing or improving NZ export prospects, weighing on EUR/NZD.
