EUR/NZD Outlook:
The EUR/NZD rate is likely to decrease as it is currently trading near 14-day lows, significantly below its 3-month average. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Eurozone add pressure on the euro.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank's caution on policy adjustments contrasts with the stable, lower rates in New Zealand, weakening the euro.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices, currently at much higher levels than average, contribute to inflationary risks for the Eurozone, negatively impacting the euro.
• One macro factor: Recent U.S. tariff reductions on New Zealand exports may bolster the NZD, providing additional support for it against the euro.
Range:
Expect the EUR/NZD to hold within its recent trading range, potentially testing lower extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant decrease in oil prices could ease inflation pressures on the euro.
• Downside risk: Any escalation in geopolitical tensions could further weaken the euro against the NZD.