The recent performance of the EUR to PLN exchange rate has shown stability, trading at 4.2562, which is close to its three-month average. It has moved within a narrow range of 1.3%, between 4.2297 and 4.2833, indicating little volatility in the pair.
Inflation trends in the Eurozone, which have recently decreased from 2.2% to 2.1% in October, have led to a dovish outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB). Analysts note that this cooling inflation might temper expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes, potentially weakening the euro in the near term. The Composite PMI reading of 49.7 reflects a slight contraction in business activity, further contributing to concerns about the Eurozone's economic health.
Meanwhile, the Polish zloty faces its own challenges. Following a significant interest rate cut by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) in May 2025, expectations are shaping around further rate reductions as inflation continues to decline. This could further pressure the PLN. Political uncertainty stemming from the recent election of President Karol Nawrocki adds another layer of complexity, impacting fiscal policies and market perception of the zloty's stability.
Global events also play a critical role. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to exert pressure on the euro, with geopolitical tensions affecting economic performance throughout the Eurozone. Analysts highlight that sustained support for Ukraine by the EU may lead to both short-term volatility in the euro and broader impacts on the zloty due to changing trade dynamics.
Regarding global oil prices, current data shows that crude oil trades at 65.21, slightly below its three-month average of 66.1, having experienced significant volatility in the last few months. While the relationship between oil prices and the euro is indirect, higher oil prices can impact inflation and economic stability, indirectly influencing currency valuations.
Considering these factors — ECB policies, inflation trends, political developments, and external economic pressures — market experts suggest that traders should remain vigilant. With both the euro and PLN influenced by numerous interconnected factors, future movements in the EUR to PLN exchange rate will likely depend on upcoming economic data releases and political developments in both the Eurozone and Poland.
