EUR/PLN Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is near its recent average and lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank has maintained interest rates, while the National Bank of Poland has recently cut them, which puts downward pressure on the PLN compared to the EUR.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices recovering and trading above their 3-month average, costs may rise, putting additional pressure on the eurozone economy.
• One macro factor: Recent inflation data shows a decline to below target levels for the eurozone, raising concerns about potential future interest rate cuts.
Range:
EUR/PLN is expected to hold steady within its recent range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant recovery in energy prices could stabilize the euro.
• Downside risk: Further political uncertainties in Poland could increase the zloty's volatility.