The EUR to PLN exchange rate has recently experienced fluctuations influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors. As of the latest available data, the exchange rate stands at 4.2334 PLN per EUR, which is just below its three-month average. It has traded within a narrow range of 1.2% between 4.2228 and 4.2747 PLN, reflecting a period of relative stability for the euro against the zloty.
Analysts have observed that the euro has exhibited mixed performance in a prevailing risk-on market environment, experiencing weakness against riskier currencies. A significant element affecting the euro is the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent dovish policy shift. Following a peak interest rate of 4.0% in 2024 aimed at combating inflation, the bank is now expected to gradually lower rates due to sluggish growth, potentially reaching 3.5% by late 2025. This anticipated reduction may narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S. dollar, a factor that could influence the euro's appeal among investors.
Furthermore, forecasts indicate that upcoming improvements in German consumer confidence and Eurozone economic sentiment may bolster the euro. However, the protracted geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to cast a shadow on the eurozone’s economic outlook. As the situation unfolds, the potential for a resolution or escalation remains a critical determinant of market sentiment and the euro’s value.
In terms of factors influencing the Polish zloty, recent monetary policy developments from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) have introduced some caution to the currency's outlook. The NBP cut its base interest rate in May 2025 in response to falling inflation, yet signals suggest that the bank does not intend to embark on a broader easing cycle. The zloty’s performance is also influenced by the recent political developments following the election of President Karol Nawrocki, creating additional uncertainties around fiscal policy.
In conjunction with domestic influences, the PLN is sensitive to global economic conditions, particularly oil prices. Recent data shows oil prices have declined, currently at 63.07 USD, which is 3.2% below their three-month average. Such movements can affect inflation expectations and the economic dynamics of both the Eurozone and Poland, further entwining the factors that influence the EUR/PLN exchange rate.
Overall, the interplay between monetary policy decisions, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment will remain critical for the EUR to PLN exchange rate in the coming months. Those involved in international transactions should remain vigilant of these economic indicators and policy shifts as they navigate currency risk.
