Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, current EUR/PLN sits below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: ECB policy remains firmer than Poland’s, with the NBP pausing cuts, widening the policy gap in favour of the euro and leaving PLN more sensitive to euro-zone data.
- Oil trend: crude sits at multi-week highs with notable volatility; the higher oil price supports euro-area inflation paths and tends to keep the euro firm, while risk-off moves can lift the zloty and weigh on EUR/PLN.
- Macro: Poland’s economy is expected to grow solidly in 2026, supported by EU funds and resilient domestic demand, a combination that underpins PLN despite policy tightening in nearby economies.
Range: EUR/PLN is likely to drift within the recent 3-month range, with a bias toward the lower end given the current position below the 90-day average.
What could change it:
Upside risk: stronger euro-zone growth or a clearer ECB tilt toward tighter policy could push EUR higher.
Downside risk: stronger Polish growth or renewed NBP easing could lift PLN and push EUR/PLN lower.
