The exchange rate forecast for the euro to Polish zloty (EUR/PLN) reflects a cautious outlook influenced by recent economic developments in both the Eurozone and Poland. As of early December 2025, the EUR/PLN is trading at 90-day lows near 4.2032, which is 0.9% below its three-month average of 4.2422, indicating a stable trading range between 4.2032 and 4.2747.
A recent update from the European Central Bank (ECB) has put pressure on the euro, particularly due to President Christine Lagarde's warnings that a stronger euro could exacerbate inflation issues. Despite an upward revision in growth forecasts and slight increases in Eurozone inflation (at 2.2% in November), concerns remain about the ECB's cautious approach to interest rates aimed at stabilizing inflation without strengthening the euro to the detriment of economic recovery.
Meanwhile, Poland's central bank, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), has opted for a rate cut, reducing its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Analysts suggest that this may reflect a broader trend of economic stagnation and rate-setting caution in Poland, contextualized by a high budget deficit. A Reuters poll anticipates slight weakening of the Polish zloty, projecting it may reach around 4.25 per euro over the next year due to emerging fiscal pressures and political uncertainties linked to recent electoral developments.
Market observers note that the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly linked to the war in Ukraine, and shifts in energy prices, such as the recent volatility of oil prices (currently at $59.75, approximately 6.5% below its three-month average), could also affect the dynamics between the euro and the zloty.
Overall, forecasts suggest that the EUR/PLN exchange rate will be influenced by a mix of European monetary policy decisions, inflation trends in the Eurozone, and fiscal considerations within Poland, creating a complex environment for international transactions involving these currencies.
