Bias: The EUR/PLN is range-bound, hovering near its 90-day average and within the stable mid-range of the past three months.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The European Central Bank is likely to maintain a neutral policy stance, while Poland's central bank has paused rate cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above their 3-month average, which could bolster the Euro due to energy market stability affecting the Eurozone's economy.
- Economic performance: Poland's economy is forecasted to grow over 3.5% in 2026, supported by EU funds, providing a positive backdrop for the zloty.
Range: The EUR/PLN is expected to drift within its recent range as domestic and external factors stabilize.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant improvement in Eurozone economic data could strengthen the euro.
- Downside risk: Political uncertainties in Poland could pressure the zloty, leading to a weaker EUR/PLN.