Recent forecasts for the EUR to PLN exchange rate indicate a relatively stable environment for both currencies, despite underlying uncertainties affecting their trajectories. As of late December 2025, the euro is trading at 4.2165 PLN, which is close to its three-month average of 4.2402 PLN, suggesting limited volatility in the short term. The euro has traded within a narrow range of 1.7% between 4.2040 and 4.2747 PLN recently.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its interest rates unchanged in light of modest economic growth within the Eurozone. ECB President Christine Lagarde has expressed caution regarding the stronger euro's potential impact on inflation, which has added downward pressure on the euro’s value. Analysts at the European Commission have projected a dip in headline inflation for the Eurozone, which could influence future ECB decisions and the euro's strength.
In contrast, the Polish zloty is benefiting from a shift in monetary policy, with the National Bank of Poland (NBP) reducing its benchmark interest rate to 5.25% in May 2025. This move is part of a broader easing cycle that is expected to continue, contingent upon favorable economic indicators. Recent data shows Poland's inflation rate has decreased, aligning closely to the NBP's target, which may further support the zloty's positive outlook.
UBS forecasts a stabilization of the EUR/PLN exchange rate around 4.25 PLN into the second quarter of 2026, reflecting a more optimistic perspective for the zloty as it gains traction against the euro. However, the ongoing geopolitical tensions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine continue to weigh on the euro, affecting investor sentiment and market stability.
Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices have potential implications for both currencies. The price of oil (Brent Crude OIL/USD) has recently reached seven-day highs but remains below its three-month average, indicating some volatility that could impact inflation and economic recovery timelines in Europe and Poland alike.
In summary, while the EUR/PLN exchange rate appears stable, the interplay between ECB monetary policy, NBP interest rate adjustments, and external factors such as oil prices and geopolitical events will continue to shape the outlook for these currencies in the coming months. Investors and businesses eyeing international transactions should monitor these developments closely to optimize currency exchange opportunities.
