EUR/PLN Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is near its recent average and lacks a clear directional driver.
Key drivers:
• Eurozone inflation is projected to decrease, which may support the euro’s stability while aligning with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) targets.
• Oil prices have recently risen and are above their average, which could enhance the euro's appeal given its negative correlation with the US dollar.
• Poland's economy is projected to grow over 3.5% in 2026, supported by strong fundamentals, but political gridlock may introduce volatility for the zloty.
Range: The EUR/PLN rate is likely to drift within the stable range observed over the past three months.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in key German economic indicators could bolster the euro.
• Downside risk: Any escalation in political tensions within Poland could negatively impact the zloty.