The current market bias for the EUR to PLN exchange rate is range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- The European Central Bank's (ECB) data-dependent policy and interest rate stability, which supports the euro's value against the PLN.
- The National Bank of Poland's recent interest rate cut reflects their aim to foster growth, putting pressure on the zloty.
- Solid GDP growth in Poland aids the zloty's performance but is tempered by the central bank's projected losses.
In the near term, the EUR/PLN rate is expected to remain within a stable range, reflecting recent trading patterns.
An upside risk could emerge if positive data from the Eurozone strengthens the euro further. Conversely, more aggressive rate cuts by the NBP or worsening investor sentiment regarding Poland’s economic outlook could weaken the zloty.
Oil prices, while currently volatile, have not disrupted this relationship; the EUR remains resilient amidst fluctuating energy costs that affect broader economic conditions.