Recent forecasts and market developments suggest a complex outlook for the EUR to PLN exchange rate. The euro (EUR) has shown strength, boosted by positive economic indicators from Germany, specifically an unexpected improvement in the ZEW economic sentiment index. This has been complemented by a weakening of the US dollar (USD), with which the euro generally has an inverse relationship. Analysts note that any hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in her upcoming address could further support the euro's value.
Key developments within the Eurozone, such as Bulgaria's forthcoming accession to the eurozone and signals of an increase in euro-denominated investments from emerging markets, have contributed to a positive sentiment surrounding the euro. However, there are concerns among ECB officials regarding the rapid appreciation of the euro, which has surged 14% against the USD so far in 2025. This raises potential challenges for export competitiveness, highlighting a balance that the ECB must manage moving forward.
On the other hand, the Polish zloty (PLN) faces pressures from both internal and external factors. UBS recently revised its EUR/PLN forecast to 4.25 through Q2 2026, citing trade tensions and local political uncertainties as significant risks. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has adopted a dovish stance, evidenced by recent interest rate cuts, which are likely to weaken the zloty further. Economic data, including underwhelming retail sales and industrial production figures, have exacerbated speculation regarding additional NBP rate cuts, pushing forecasts for the EUR/PLN towards 4.280.
Currently, the exchange rate is stable at 4.2555, aligning closely with its three-month average. The EUR/PLN has been trading within a narrow range of 4.2353 to 4.2833 over the past few months. However, the zloty could experience increased volatility due to ongoing political uncertainty following recent elections in Poland, alongside external shocks such as fluctuating oil prices. With oil traded at $67.95, currently 1% below its three-month average and experiencing notable volatility, energy prices remain a significant factor influencing broader economic stability in the Eurozone and Poland.
Overall, analysts recommend monitoring the European Central Bank's monetary policy stance closely, as it will be key to determining the euro's trajectory against the zloty amid Poland's domestic economic challenges.
