Bias: The outlook for EUR/QAR is range-bound, as the current level is near the 90-day average and positioned within the middle of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The European Central Bank's relatively stable interest rates contrast with the Qatar Central Bank's adjustments in line with U.S. monetary policy to maintain the currency peg, influencing the EUR/QAR exchange rate.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices have shown volatility but are slightly above the 3-month average, impacting the Qatari economy significantly as it relies on hydrocarbon revenues, potentially supporting the QAR against the EUR.
- One macro factor: Qatar's GDP growth is forecasted to rise, particularly in the non-hydrocarbon sector, which could strengthen the QAR as economic activity accelerates.
Range: EUR/QAR is likely to hold steady within its recent range, with limited movement expected.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Increased Eurozone economic data exceeding expectations could bolster the EUR against the QAR.
- Downside risk: Renewed geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices or Eurozone economic stability could weaken the EUR pressure against the QAR.
