Bias: Range-bound, with EUR/QAR near the 90-day average and around the middle of its three-month range.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: The ECB maintains a neutral-to-mildly restrictive stance, while the Qatar Central Bank’s moves follow the US to defend the peg; that setup keeps EUR gains largely dependent on dollar moves.
Risk/commodities: Oil trends higher with volatility, which tends to bolster the QAR on energy earnings, while euro-area inflation and growth dynamics remain key for EUR.
Macro factor: Qatar’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised up, underpinning Riyal stability.
Range: Expect drift within the recent band, with little chance of a decisive break in the near term.
What could change it:
Upside risk: A stronger euro on positive eurozone data or a softer USD could lift EUR/QAR toward the top end.
Downside risk: A renewed rally in the US dollar or a sharper drop in oil prices could weigh on EUR and press EUR/QAR lower.