EUR/QAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank has maintained interest rates, while Qatar's Central Bank has recently increased its rates to support the QAR's stability.
• Risk/commodities: The recent volatility in oil prices, which are currently above their average, could support the QAR due to its peg to the US dollar, influencing trade dynamics.
• Macro factor: Eurozone inflation has fallen below target, raising concerns about future ECB rate cuts, which may pressure the EUR.
Range:
Expect the EUR/QAR to hold within its recent 3-month range, showing stability without testing extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A resolution of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine could boost the EUR.
• Downside risk: Continued weakness in Eurozone economic indicators might lead to a decline in the EUR.