EUR/QAR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average and near recent highs but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is adopting a cautious monetary policy stance, while the Qatari Riyal is supported by stable reserves and a strong energy sector.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above their average, which generally supports the QAR due to Qatar's energy-driven economy.
• One macro factor: The recent GDP growth in the Eurozone outpaced expectations, potentially strengthening the euro if the trend continues.
Range: The EUR/QAR is expected to hold within its recent range, buoyed by economic indicators, but without clear catalysts for a substantial move.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected improvement in Eurozone retail sales could support the euro.
• Downside risk: A sustained rise in the US dollar could pressure the euro lower against the QAR, given its inverse correlation.
