EUR/QAR Outlook:
The EUR/QAR exchange rate is slightly positive but likely to move sideways, as it is above its recent average and trading near the mid-range of its past three months. Current conditions indicate no strong directional driver that would push the rate significantly higher or lower.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank's ongoing considerations about inflation contrast with the Qatari riyal's fixed peg to the U.S. dollar, resulting in limited volatility for the QAR.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which can support the euro against the riyal due to the eurozone's oil import dynamics.
• One macro factor: Improvement in Germany’s business sentiment provides some support for the euro, even as external trade concerns remain.
Range:
The EUR/QAR is expected to drift within its recent 3-month range, showing limited movement without extreme fluctuations.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in EU economic data could strengthen the euro.
• Downside risk: Renewed concerns about U.S.-EU trade relations may pressure the euro lower.
