EUR/QAR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average, but lacks a clear driving force.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank has maintained interest rates, supporting the euro’s strength compared to the Qatari Riyal.
• Risk/commodities: The recent rise in oil prices may bolster the QAR, as higher oil prices generally strengthen commodity-linked currencies.
• One macro factor: Eurozone inflation has fallen below target levels, raising concerns about future rate cuts from the ECB.
Range:
The EUR/QAR is likely to drift within its recent range as it currently trades above average.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strengthening of the euro could arise from increased investor confidence in Eurozone economic resilience.
• Downside risk: A noticeable decline in oil prices could weaken the QAR, potentially leading to a lower EUR/QAR rate.