EUR/QAR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average, but lacks a clear driver for substantial movement.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates, while Qatar's approach aligns closely with the US Federal Reserve, which supports QAR stability.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are near recent highs, which generally benefits the Qatari Riyal due to its oil-dependent economy, although the impact may be muted.
• One macro factor: Germany's upcoming consumer confidence index could influence the euro's strength, particularly if morale shows improvement.
Range: EUR/QAR is likely to hold steady within its recent range following the current trading positions.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in German consumer confidence could strengthen the euro.
• Downside risk: A downturn in oil prices could exert pressure on the QAR and the EUR/QAR rate overall.
