EUR/QAR Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above its recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank maintains a cautious stance on interest rates, contrasting with Qatar's stable economy backed by its pegged currency against the US dollar.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are at 90-day highs, which typically supports the Qatari rial due to its oil wealth, but this benefit is offset by the uncertain outlook for the euro.
• One macro factor: The recent rise in the Eurozone's economic sentiment index may offer temporary support for the euro, yet it remains vulnerable to ECB easing speculation.
Range: The EUR/QAR is expected to hold within the current range, with potential for minor fluctuations but no significant breakouts.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger economic report or surprising data from the Eurozone could bolster the euro’s appeal.
• Downside risk: Renewed speculation about ECB interest rate cuts may pressure the euro lower against the QAR.
