EUR/QAR Outlook:
The EUR/QAR rate is currently below its recent average and near recent lows, suggesting a bearish outlook. The ongoing pressures from geopolitical tensions are adding uncertainty to the euro’s performance.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining rates amid economic uncertainty, while the Qatari Riyal benefits indirectly from a strengthening US dollar due to its peg.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above their recent average, which may support the QAR indirectly as it influences economic conditions in the region.
- One macro factor: Recent developments related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to put downward pressure on the euro, creating volatility and uncertainty around the currency.
Range:
The EUR/QAR is likely to drift within its recent trading range, lacking a distinct direction.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: Any significant resolution in the geopolitical situation could bolster the euro's performance.
- Downside risk: Continued military escalation in Ukraine may lead to further euro weakness.
