EUR/QAR Outlook:
The EUR/QAR rate is currently just above its 90-day average, indicating a slightly positive outlook, though it lacks a clear driver for further upward momentum, as it trades within a stable range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining an accommodative policy, which may keep the euro under pressure compared to the more stable peg of the Qatari riyal to the US dollar.
• Risk/commodities: Recent trends show oil prices are at 90-day highs, which can boost the QAR given Qatar's significant oil revenues.
• One macro factor: Consumer confidence in the Eurozone remains weak, which affects the euro's strength as economic recovery is vital for its appreciation.
Range:
Expect the EUR/QAR to drift within its recent stable range as it adjusts to current economic conditions.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected rebound in Eurozone private sector growth could enhance the euro's appeal.
• Downside risk: A prolonged decline in consumer confidence or worsening geopolitical tensions could pressure the euro further.