Bias: Range-bound, current EUR/QAR sits near the 90-day average and in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: ECB policy remains higher than Qatar’s, while the QAR is kept stable by the USD peg.
- Oil trend: Oil prices sit near multi-week highs with notable volatility, shaping euro-area inflation expectations and energy dynamics, while the QAR influence from oil is indirect due to the peg.
- Macro factor: Eurozone inflation is easing and the ECB is expected to maintain a neutral stance, supporting a steady euro path.
Range: Movement is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with a mild tilt toward the upper end if risk appetite improves.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: US data cooling could lift EUR as dollar demand softens and the ECB stays on a cautious but steady path.
- Downside risk: a sharper oil retreat or softer euro-area data could weigh on EUR, pressuring EUR/QAR lower.
