Bias: The outlook is bearish-to-range-bound, as the EUR is currently below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank's neutral policy contrasts with Qatar's alignment with the US Federal Reserve, affecting their interest rate differentials.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are moderately above the 3-month average, which could support the QAR due to Qatar's hydrocarbon dependence.
• One macro factor: Qatar's GDP is projected to grow steadily in 2026, boosting confidence in the QAR's strength.
Range: Movement in the EUR/QAR pair is likely to hold in the recent stable range, with limited upward momentum expected.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in Eurozone economic data could strengthen the EUR against the QAR.
• Downside risk: Escalation in geopolitical tensions or a downturn in oil prices could weigh further on the EUR and enhance QAR stability.