EUR/QAR Outlook:
The EUR/QAR is likely to decrease as it trades near recent lows and is currently below its 90-day average. The risk of elevated oil prices adds pressure to the euro, impacting its value.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank faces challenges from high energy costs and weaker growth, while Qatar's economic outlook remains positive.
• Risk/commodities: Rising oil prices are at 90-day highs, creating additional inflationary pressure on the Eurozone economy, which typically weighs on the euro.
• One macro factor: Upcoming Eurozone unemployment data may not offset the negative influences from geopolitical instability and rising energy costs.
Range:
The EUR/QAR is expected to drift within its recent 3-month range, testing lower levels as the market factors in external pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A de-escalation of geopolitical tensions that eases energy fears.
• Downside risk: Further increases in oil prices, leading to more significant inflation concerns in the Eurozone.
