Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, because EUR/RUB is below the 90-day average and sits in the lower half of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: BoR remains tight while the ECB keeps policy modest, sustaining ruble support and pressuring EUR/RUB.
- Oil: Crude oil trends higher and exhibits volatility, typically lifting the ruble on energy revenue and weighing on the euro/ruble pair.
- Macro factor: EU sanctions on new gas contracts from Russia could curb energy revenue and add pressure on the ruble, offering room for EUR/RUB to edge higher.
Range: The pair is likely to drift within the 3-month range, with a tilt toward the lower end and a watchful eye for tests of support.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A clearer euro-area data surprise and signs of ECB tightening narrowing the policy gap could lift EUR/RUB.
- Downside risk: Prolonged oil strength and ongoing ruble yield dynamics could push EUR/RUB toward the range’s lower boundary.
