Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as the EUR is below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a neutral policy, while the Bank of Russia has a tight monetary stance aimed at controlling inflation.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above average, which could support the ruble due to its reliance on energy exports.
• Sanctions impact: New EU sanctions on Russian gas contracts might pressure the ruble further by limiting revenue from exports.
Range: EUR/RUB may drift within the recent range, limited by bearish pressures on the euro and the effects of sanctions on the ruble.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stabilization in the geopolitical landscape could improve investor confidence in the euro.
• Downside risk: Further sanctions on Russian energy or a significant decline in oil prices could weaken the ruble and keep EUR/RUB under pressure.