Forecasts for EUR to RUB
The EUR to RUB exchange rate has recently seen some volatility, with the euro currently trading at near 14-day highs around 91.00. Although this represents a 1.7% dip from its three-month average of 92.55, it has fluctuated within a range of 9.3% over the past weeks, hitting a low of 89.31 and a high of 97.62. Analysts highlight that the euro has recently benefitted from a weakened US dollar, bolstered by negative correlations in the currency markets, especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) navigates future interest rate decisions.
However, ongoing concerns about potential interest rate cuts from the ECB have somewhat capped the euro's upward momentum. The anticipated release of the Eurozone’s PMIs is expected to shed light on private sector growth, which could either support the euro's trajectory or introduce further volatility depending on the results.
The broader geopolitical landscape, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, continues to profoundly influence both the euro and the ruble. The EU's significant economic ties and sanctions against Russia have created a challenging environment for the euro, leading to uncertainties that could affect its value in the near term. Conversely, the ruble remains among the worst-performing currencies, having lost about 7% against the US dollar in 2022 and facing continued pressures as geopolitical tensions persist.
The ruble's performance is also correlated with oil price movements, as a commodity-driven economy heavily relies on oil exports. Recently, oil prices have hit 14-day lows around 64.09, which is 5.2% below their three-month average of 67.62. The volatility in oil, with a large trading range of 24.7% from 60.14 to 75.02, suggests that any significant shifts could impact the ruble further, especially given the currency's strong sensitivity to fluctuations in oil prices.
Going forward, the outlook for the EUR to RUB exchange rate will hinge not only on the ECB's monetary policy and economic indicators from the Eurozone but also on the geopolitical developments surrounding Ukraine and the associated economic implications for both the euro and the ruble. As analysts closely monitor these interconnected factors, market participants may find opportunities for strategic positioning in international transactions.
