The current market bias for the EUR/RUB exchange rate is bearish. Key drivers include:
- The Bank of Russia's planned interest rate cut from 17.5% to 12.0-13.0% in 2026, indicating reduced monetary tightening.
- Expected sluggish economic growth in Russia, forecasted between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2026, may weaken the ruble's performance.
- The eurozone's GDP growth is projected to be 1.6% for 2026, buoyed by fiscal measures, which can support the euro against the ruble.
The near-term trading range for EUR/RUB suggests continued fluctuations around current prices, likely remaining within a stable range impacted by recent moves. Significant upside risks include potential geopolitical resolutions that could favor the euro. Conversely, downside risks are tied to global oil price volatility, which influences the ruble's strength; current oil prices have shown high volatility but remain a critical factor for Russia.