EUR/RUB Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and lacking strong drivers for change.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank has adopted a cautious approach, while the Central Bank of Russia has reduced its foreign currency sales, indicating potential further weakening for the ruble.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are trading above their recent average, which typically supports the ruble; however, ongoing sanctions could counteract this effect.
• One macro factor: The outlook for the euro remains clouded as predictions of modest economic growth in the Eurozone highlight ongoing uncertainty alongside geopolitical tensions.
Range: Movement is expected to remain within the recent 3-month range, likely holding around the current level without significant shifts.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A positive surprise in upcoming economic data from the Eurozone could strengthen the euro.
• Downside risk: Continued geopolitical tensions or a significant drop in global oil prices may lead to further pressure on the ruble.
