The EUR to RUB exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- The interest rate differential is significant, with the Bank of Russia maintaining a high key rate of 17.5%, while the ECB remains data-dependent, affecting the euro’s appeal.
- Economic growth in Russia is projected to slow, with GDP growth expected between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2026, which may weigh on the ruble.
- Inflation in Russia is anticipated to drop to 4.0%, which could help stabilize the ruble.
In the near term, the EUR to RUB rate may trade within a stable range. The pair has recently been around 93.84, slightly above its three-month average.
Upside risks include improved investor sentiment towards the euro due to positive economic projections in the Eurozone. Downside risks involve potential geopolitical tensions impacting the ruble and global oil price volatility, noted as having recently traded below its average.