The euro (EUR) is currently bearish against the Russian ruble (RUB).
Key drivers include:
• The European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining interest rates while expressing concern that a stronger euro may hinder inflation control, which pressures the euro's value.
• The Bank of Russia's aggressive interest rate policy aims to stabilize the ruble, with expectations to lower rates gradually in the coming years.
• Economic growth projections indicate a slowdown for Russia, while the Eurozone expects slight GDP growth, potentially favoring the euro long-term.
In the near term, the EUR/RUB exchange rate is expected to trade within a fluctuating range influenced by recent volatility.
Upside risks include a rebound in global oil prices, which historically supports ruble strength, while downside risks involve further geopolitical tensions potentially impacting the euro more significantly than the ruble.