The EUR to RUB exchange rate has recently exhibited volatility, with the euro trading at 90.12 RUB, which is notably 4.8% below its 3-month average of 94.68 RUB. Over the past months, the pair has fluctuated within a range of 89.91 to 99.16 RUB, indicating significant market movements.
Recent forecasts and market updates indicate mixed sentiments for both currencies. The euro's performance has been affected by a "risk-on" market mood, which has led to a relative weakening against riskier assets. Analysts note that uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine war continues to create fluctuations in the euro's value, as does the correlation with movements in the US dollar.
Expectations around the European Central Bank's (ECB) shift towards dovish monetary policy could weigh on the euro. After raising interest rates to combat inflation, the ECB is now anticipated to lower rates to 3.5% by late 2025. This pivot could diminish the interest rate differential with the US Federal Reserve, consequently impacting the euro negatively against other currencies, including the ruble.
Conversely, the Russian ruble faces pressures from significant economic challenges, including new US sanctions that are forecasted to slow down Russian exports and result in a deceleration of economic growth. The Central Bank of Russia's recent interest rate cuts, from 17% to 16.5%, aim to address inflationary expectations, which have been exacerbated by rising gasoline prices amid ongoing geopolitical issues. Experts indicate that these factors contribute to a bearish outlook for the ruble.
Additionally, oil price fluctuations significantly influence the euro and ruble, as both economies are sensitive to energy costs. Current data shows oil trading at 62.38 USD, 4.1% below a 3-month average of 65.05 USD, with these declines likely affecting the ruble's performance given Russia's reliance on oil revenues.
In summary, the EUR to RUB exchange rate will be influenced by the interplays of monetary policies, geopolitical developments, and global market sentiment. Continued vigilance on these factors will be crucial for businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions.
