Bias: range-bound (the price is expected to move within a defined band rather than trend), current level vs the 90-day average is unclear, and it sits in the upper half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: Bank of Russia maintains a tight policy while the ECB stays neutral, creating a policy gap that supports the ruble on calmer days and keeps euro moves data-dependent.
• Risk/commodities: Oil remains above its long-run average with swings, a factor that tends to support the ruble when supply is steady.
• One macro factor: Sanctions on energy exports weigh on Russia’s revenue and add a headwind for the ruble.
Range: EUR/RUB is likely to drift within the three-month range, with a test of the upper boundary if oil stays firm and sanctions remain tight.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: An unexpected hawkish tilt from the ECB, lifting the euro.
• Downside risk: A sharp oil move higher and stronger ruble from energy flows.
