The EUR to RUB exchange rate has seen significant fluctuations recently, largely influenced by geopolitical factors, central bank policies, and market conditions. Currently, the euro is valued at 90.06 RUB, which is 4.7% below its three-month average of 94.54 RUB, highlighting the currency's volatility within a range of 89.91 to 99.16 RUB.
Recent reports indicate that the euro has found support primarily from a weaker U.S. dollar, especially following November's revisions to the Eurozone manufacturing PMI. Analysts suggest that the euro could strengthen if inflation indicators reaffirm market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may hold off on further rate cuts after a recent shift to a more dovish stance. The ECB’s interest rate was raised to 4.0% in 2024, but rates may decline to 3.5% by late 2025 due to slow growth projections, which could diminish the interest rate differential with the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, developments in Russia, such as interest rate cuts by the Central Bank and rising inflation expectations, are also pivotal for the RUB’s performance. The Central Bank has cut rates in response to new U.S. sanctions on major oil firms and the anticipated economic slowdown, which is projected to be around 1% growth in 2025. Additionally, rising gasoline prices, partly driven by increased Ukrainian attacks, have added to pressure on inflation. This environment may further complicate the ruble's exchange dynamics against a fluctuating euro.
Overall, fluctuations in oil prices, with current benchmarks sitting at 62.45 USD per barrel—3.6% below the three-month average—play a critical role in influencing the RUB due to Russia’s heavy dependence on energy exports. Analysts note that ongoing economic challenges, combined with recent sanctions and geopolitics, will continue to shape the outlook for the euro and the ruble. Monitoring these developments will be essential for businesses and individuals engaged in international transactions involving these currencies.
