Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, as EUR/SEK sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the last three months' range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: the ECB policy rate sits modestly above Sweden’s, supporting EUR relative to SEK.
• Oil: oil is above its 3-month average and more volatile, shaping euro-area inflation expectations and adding FX impulses to EUR.
• Macro: Riksbank is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged through 2026, keeping SEK steadier.
Range: EUR/SEK is likely to hold near the lower end of its three-month range, with mild drift toward the middle unless data shifts expectations.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger Eurozone data or hawkish ECB signals could push EUR/SEK higher.
• Downside risk: weaker Swedish data or renewed dovishness from the Riksbank could push EUR/SEK lower.
