Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, as EUR/SEK trades below its ninety-day average and sits in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: ECB policy remains neutral while the Riksbank keeps rates steady, keeping the spread modest and capping EUR outperformance versus SEK.
• Risk/commodities: Oil holds at higher levels with volatility, a backdrop that tends to weigh the euro on energy-cost concerns and leave the krona comparatively steadier.
• Macro factor: Sweden’s economy is expected to show steady growth with unemployment easing, supporting the krona.
Range: EUR/SEK is likely to drift within the three-month range, with a bias toward testing the lower end if risk appetite softens amid mixed data.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: stronger euro-area data or a hawkish ECB stance that strengthens the euro and lifts EUR/SEK.
• Downside risk: Swedish growth surprises to the upside and the Riksbank hints at a tighter stance, pushing the krona higher and EUR/SEK lower.
