The EUR to SEK exchange rate is currently range-bound, hovering around recent lows.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, with Sweden's Riksbank maintaining rates at 2.25%, while the European Central Bank (ECB) remains more flexible in its approach. Additionally, Sweden's economic growth is projected to increase to 2.6% in 2026, bolstering the SEK, while Eurozone GDP growth is noted at 1.6%. On a global scale, a softening USD has provided support for the EUR, despite possible volatility arising from fluctuating oil prices, which have recently reached 14-day lows.
In the near term, the EUR/SEK exchange rate is expected to trade within a stable range, staying consistent with its recent performance. Upside risks include potential positive surprises in Eurozone economic data or strengthened risk sentiment. Conversely, downside risks may originate from escalating geopolitical tensions impacting European markets or a significant spike in oil prices disrupting the recovery outlook.