EUR/SEK Outlook:
Bearish, with the rate below its recent average and near recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining rates while Sweden's Riksbank has shifted to lower rates, creating pressure on the euro against the krona.
• Risk/commodities: Recent volatility in oil prices, with crude trading above its 3-month average, is raising concerns for the eurozone’s energy-dependent economy.
• One macro factor: Sweden’s GDP is projected to rise significantly in 2026, strengthening the krona as it recovers from previous economic challenges.
Range:
Movement in EUR/SEK is expected to drift within the recent stable range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in the geopolitical situation related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could support a euro rebound.
• Downside risk: Further economic deterioration in the eurozone or unexpected rate cuts from the ECB could weaken the euro further.