Bias: range-bound, current sits in the lower half of the 3-month range and near the 90-day average.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The ECB policy rate remains higher than Sweden's, supporting EUR against SEK and leaving less room for SEK gains.
- Risk/commodities: Oil trades at multi-day highs with notable volatility; higher oil costs tend to weigh on the krona more than the euro, nudging EUR/SEK higher.
- Macro: Sweden's central bank kept policy rates at the current level and signaled policy will stay steady through 2026.
Range: the pair is likely to stay near the lower end of the recent range, with a gradual drift toward the bottom unless new data or oil moves surprise.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: clearer ECB guidance that rates stay higher for longer, or stronger eurozone data, could push EUR/SEK toward the upper end of the range.
- Downside risk: Swedish data surprises to the upside or the ECB shifts to a more cautious stance, inviting SEK gains and pulling EUR/SEK lower.
