The EUR to SEK exchange rate remains relatively stable, currently trading around 10.99, close to its 3-month average and within a narrow range of 10.91 to 11.14. Recently, the euro experienced downward pressure due to comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighting vulnerabilities in Europe's economy, which may hinder short-term euro strength.
Forecasts indicate that the euro's outlook is affected by the ECB's dovish monetary policy shift. After raising rates to 4.0% in 2024, the ECB is expected to cut rates to 3.5% by late 2025 in response to slowing growth. This shift could narrow the interest rate differential between the Eurozone and the US, potentially placing further downward pressure on the euro.
In contrast, the Swedish krona has shown signs of strength, particularly following a surprise rate cut by the Riksbank to 1.75% in September 2025. Despite this dovish approach, analysts from UBS express a positive outlook for the SEK, citing factors like the repatriation of foreign assets and a stable economic backdrop. Sweden's inflation aligning with the ECB's target further supports credibility in its monetary policy, which could reinforce the krona's resilience.
Additionally, the recent drop in oil prices, currently trading at around 62.21 after reaching 30-day lows, could indirectly impact the euro. As the Eurozone remains sensitive to fluctuations in energy costs, continued volatility in oil prices may impact economic sentiment and inflation rates, thereby affecting the euro's trajectory.
Overall, the interplay between central bank policies, economic indicators, and external market conditions will be critical for forecasting the EUR to SEK movements. As the Riksbank continues to navigate its monetary policy while confronting economic challenges, and the ECB adjusts to external pressures, businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions should stay vigilant about potential rate shifts in the coming months.
