The EUR to THB market bias is currently range-bound, indicated by recent trading patterns.
Key drivers include:
- The European Central Bank's (ECB) data-dependent policy holds interest rates steady, which supports the euro against the baht.
- Thailand's strong current account surplus and anticipated capital inflows may strengthen the baht further.
- Macro factors such as the eurozone GDP growth projection of 1.6% keep the euro stable, while fears of an economic slowdown in Thailand may hinder the baht.
The expected near-term range suggests continued fluctuations around current levels given recent stability, with movements influenced by external factors like oil prices, which are considerable lower than average, contributing to a softer outlook.
Upside risks for the euro include improved economic indicators from the eurozone, while downside risks stem from escalations in geopolitical tensions that could destabilize the euro further. On the baht side, an unexpected economic improvement or a greater-than-expected decline in exports could significantly enhance its value.