The market bias for the EUR to THB exchange rate is currently bearish, with the euro trading near its 90-day lows. Key drivers include:
- Interest rates are a focal point as the European Central Bank adopts a flexible approach while anticipating economic growth in the eurozone, projected at 1.6% for 2026.
- The baht is expected to strengthen due to a weaker US dollar and robust capital inflows, amidst concerns over Thailand's export slowdown and overall economic growth.
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on global oil prices, with oil currently trading at 7-day highs, could influence investor sentiment and the euro's performance against the baht.
In the near term, the EUR/THB is likely to trade within a stable range. Upside risks include a resolution of geopolitical tensions which may bolster the euro, while downside risks involve further economic challenges in Thailand obstructing baht appreciation.