Bias:
range-bound, current EUR/THB is not clearly above or below the three-month average and sits in the lower half of the three-month range, implying limited directional pressure until a clear catalyst emerges.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: ECB policy rate sits higher than Bank of Thailand (BOT) policy rate, supporting EUR against THB; the divergence keeps EUR buoyant even if THB attracts flows.
Oil: Crude is near three-month highs and volatile; higher energy costs could weigh on EUR; any relief in energy prices would help risk assets in Europe.
Macro: ECB is expected to keep policy neutral in 2026; this stance supports stability but leaves currency moves more data-driven.
Range:
The pair remains within the recent three-month range and sits near the lower end, with little momentum for a breakout, reflecting mixed signals from euro area and Asia.
What could change it:
Upside risk: stronger Eurozone data or hawkish ECB signals could lift EUR/THB.
Downside risk: further Thai rate cuts or solid THB demand could push EUR/THB lower.
