EUR/THB Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is above the recent average but lacks a clear driver for significant movement.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining a neutral rate policy while the Bank of Thailand has recently cut rates, providing a slight edge to the euro.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices rising significantly, the slight upward pressure may support the euro indirectly through improved economic outlook in Europe.
• One macro factor: Germany’s consumer confidence index shows promise; improvements could lend support to the euro, but results are awaited.
Range: Movement is likely to hold within the recent stable range, with the rate maintaining close proximity to its recent highs but not strongly trending.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strong report on consumer confidence could bolster euro demand.
• Downside risk: Continued economic struggles in Europe or unexpected geopolitical developments could weaken the euro further.
