The current market bias for the EUR to THB exchange rate is bearish. The primary drivers influencing this trend include:
- Interest rate differentials, with the European Central Bank maintaining a flexible stance while the Bank of Thailand anticipates stability, which may support the THB against the EUR.
- Economic growth concerns in Thailand, projected at 1.5% in 2026, raised by challenges like weaker exports and tourism, which can weigh on the THB's strength.
- Political and economic uncertainties in the Eurozone, particularly concerning the ongoing war in Ukraine, which could further inhibit the euro's performance.
The expected near-term trading range foresees continued fluctuations, likely within a stable band albeit slightly below recent averages. Upside risks could stem from unexpected positive economic developments in the Eurozone or a resolution to geopolitical tensions. Conversely, downside risks may arise from a significantly stronger THB due to improved capital inflows or a worsening economic outlook for Europe.