The exchange rate forecast for the Euro (EUR) against the Thai baht (THB) reflects a complex interplay of inflation trends, central bank policies, and broader economic conditions. Recently, the euro has been supported by a weakening US Dollar, benefiting from policy divergence between central banks. As the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a focus on inflation management—with recent data showing an uptick to 2.2%—the euro's performance may be bolstered if the ECB continues to pursue measures to stabilize prices.
Analysts indicate that increased inflation could prompt the ECB to consider maintaining or even increasing interest rates to combat rising prices, which would typically strengthen the euro. However, significant geopolitical issues, particularly stemming from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, contribute to volatility and uncertainty in the European markets. Any resolution in these areas could either enhance investor confidence in the euro or lead to further depreciation depending on the nature of developments.
In contrast, the Thai Baht has faced challenges, including negative inflation for eight consecutive months, largely attributed to declining energy prices. The Bank of Thailand is also exploring measures to curb the baht's appreciation, which can hinder export competitiveness. Moreover, a projected interest rate cut could further weaken the baht, as it aims to stimulate the economy amid declining growth momentum.
Currently, the EUR/THB exchange rate is at a 90-day low near 36.93, marking a 1.7% decline from its three-month average of 37.56. The pair has remained within a relatively stable trading range of 36.93 to 38.25, despite the fluctuations in underlying economic factors. Meanwhile, recent oil price data shows that crude oil is at a 30-day low near 61.20, down 4.9% from its three-month average, which can also indirectly affect euro strength due to Europe's reliance on energy imports.
Overall, while the euro's outlook may improve if inflation continues to exceed expectations, the baht's potential weakening due to possible rate cuts and economic pressure could create opportunities for a favorable EUR/THB exchange rate for businesses and individuals involved in international transactions.
