EUR/THB Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is currently below its 90-day average and near recent lows, influenced by a weaker euro amid stable conditions.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank's neutral stance contrasts with Thailand's recent interest rate cut, making the Thai Baht more attractive.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices currently above their average, rising energy costs could put additional pressure on the euro.
• One macro factor: Thailand's projected economic growth remains below potential, contributing to mixed signals around the Baht's strength.
Range: The EUR/THB is likely to drift within its recent range, influenced by broader economic conditions and local policies.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprise shift in the ECB's monetary policy could bolster the euro.
• Downside risk: A worsening economic situation in Thailand could strengthen the Baht amid ongoing global uncertainties.