Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, EUR/THB is below its 90-day average and sits in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The ECB policy rate remains higher than the BOT's after December easing, keeping euro strength support versus the baht.
- Risk/commodities: Oil is above its longer-run average and displays volatility, which tends to weigh on the baht as an energy importer and can push EUR/THB higher.
- Macro factor: BoT's December rate cut and Thai growth outlook point to ongoing easing, keeping THB under pressure.
Range: EUR/THB is likely to hold within the recent band, with a drift toward the lower end.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A hawkish tilt from the ECB or stronger eurozone data could lift EUR/THB.
- Downside risk: If the BOT signals a pause or retreat in easing and Thai growth improves, THB could strengthen and EUR/THB move lower.