EUR/THB Outlook:
Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways, as the rate is below its recent average and within a stable range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining rates amid economic resilience, while the Bank of Thailand's interventions aim to stabilize the baht.
- Risk/commodities: The price of Brent Crude oil is rising significantly, which generally strengthens the baht due to Thailand's energy import dependency, impacting the euro's competitiveness.
- One macro factor: Eurozone inflation has fallen below target, raising concerns about potential future rate cuts from the ECB, adding to euro pressure.
Range:
The EUR/THB exchange rate is likely to hold steady within its recent range as geopolitical concerns impact the euro.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could boost euro confidence and strength.
- Downside risk: Continued weakness in Eurozone economic indicators could lead to further declines in the euro's value.