EUR/WST Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate trends above its recent average within a stable range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank's neutral stance on interest rates contrasts with the Central Bank of Samoa's efforts to manage excess liquidity, which could strengthen the euro against the Tālā.
• Risk/commodities: Current oil prices have surged above their recent average, which generally supports the euro due to the Eurozone's indirect exposure to energy markets.
• One macro factor: Germany's consumer confidence index will be closely watched; a rise could bolster the euro further.
Range: The EUR/WST is expected to hold around its current level, with potential for slight fluctuations but unlikely to reach extremes.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Improvement in German economic indicators could drive the euro higher.
• Downside risk: Increased instability from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Eurozone could weigh on the euro's value.