EUR/XCD Outlook: Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways, as it is above the recent average but lacks a clear driver.
Key drivers:
• The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining a cautious stance, keeping rates data-dependent, which limits any aggressive moves for the euro.
• Oil prices have recently jumped above their average, influencing broader market trends and potentially affecting the euro's strength through economic implications.
• The eurozone continues to see modest growth, with the recent GDP figures showing resilience, but concerns remain over maintaining export competitiveness due to a stronger euro.
Range: EUR/XCD is expected to hold within the recent 3-month range, as stability is observed despite some fluctuations.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A stronger-than-expected rebound in Germany's retail sales could boost euro demand.
• Downside risk: Heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe, particularly related to Ukraine, could dampen confidence in the euro.