Bias: range-bound, near the 90-day average and mid-range in the 3-month span, with traders awaiting ECB guidance and BEAC policy signals.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: The ECB stance remains lower than BEAC's, keeping XOF anchored via the peg and cushioning EUR/XOF from broad dollar moves.
Risk/commodities: Oil at multi-week highs with volatility adds energy-cost pressure in Europe and keeps euro gains limited.
Macro factor: Eurozone inflation is projected to ease into 2026, supporting a steadier euro amid soft energy price backdrop.
Range: EUR/XOF is expected to drift within the established 3-month range, with little momentum to push toward extremes unless upcoming data surprise markets; a consolidation phase could persist into the next data week and will respond to ECB communication and BEAC policy moves.
What could change it:
Upside risk: Stronger eurozone data, signs of cooling inflation, or a hawkish ECB communication that shifts expectations.
Downside risk: Softer eurozone figures or renewed BEAC tightening that strengthens the XOF peg pressure.