Bias: range-bound, current EUR/XPF sits around its 90-day average and near the middle of its 3-month range, with no clear directional signal for now.
Key drivers:
Rate gap: The ECB is expected to hold rates in a narrow band, while the CFP franc stays fixed to the euro, keeping EUR/XPF anchored.
Risk/commodities: Oil is trading above its 3-month average with higher volatility, a pattern that tends to pressure the euro and limit EUR/XPF gains.
Macro factor: ECB’s neutral stance for 2026 supports a steady cross unless inflation or growth surprises.
Range: EUR/XPF is likely to drift within the recent 3-month band, holding near the middle and avoiding tests of extremes for now, as investors await new data.
What could change it:
Upside risk: A clearer ECB path to normalizing policy or stronger Eurozone data could push EUR higher.
Downside risk: Oil staying elevated and European energy concerns persisting could weigh on the euro and push EUR/XPF lower.