Bias: range-bound, as the EUR/XPF rate is steady at its 3-month average and situated in the middle of the recent 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a neutral stance, while the CFP Franc (XPF) is pegged to the euro, which supports stability but limits significant moves.
• Risk/commodities: Recent oil prices are above average, which may impact the euro due to the Eurozone's exposure to energy costs.
• Macro factor: The euro's recent performance has been affected by Germany's disappointing trade figures and slower Eurozone retail sales, indicating a cautious outlook for economic growth.
Range: Movement in the EUR/XPF pair is likely to hold within its recent average, with potential to drift without major news catalysts.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Strong economic data from the Eurozone could boost the euro.
• Downside risk: Further negative economic developments, such as worsened trade figures or geopolitical tensions, could weaken the euro.