EUR/ZAR Outlook: The outlook is likely to decrease as the pair is trading near recent lows and below its average over the past three months, pressured by weak euro performance and improved ZAR dynamics.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining a neutral policy stance, while the South African Reserve Bank has recently cut interest rates, making the ZAR more attractive relative to the EUR.
- Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above their average, which tends to support the ZAR due to its correlation with commodity prices, while the EUR struggles with heightened geopolitical risks.
- One macro factor: South Africa's improved investor confidence is attracting global funds to rand-denominated bonds, bolstering the ZAR’s value.
Range: EUR/ZAR is expected to drift within the recent range as the pair remains stable.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A significant positive development in EU economic indicators or recovery from geopolitical tensions could boost the EUR.
- Downside risk: A deterioration in South Africa’s economic conditions or a sharp drop in commodity prices could weaken the ZAR further.