EUR/ZAR Outlook: Slightly weaker, but likely to move sideways as the Euro trades below its recent average and is positioned close to recent lows.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank is maintaining a cautious monetary policy, while the South African Reserve Bank recently cut interest rates, which may weaken the euro against the rand.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices currently above their average, this strengthens the rand, given South Africa's ties to commodity exports, especially gold.
• One macro factor: Germany's retail sales data, expected to show a rebound, could support the euro in the near term.
Range: EUR/ZAR is likely to hold within its recent range as market conditions remain stable.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A strong rebound in Eurozone economic indicators could boost the euro’s value.
• Downside risk: Continued USD strength may further pressure the euro, leading to a potential decline against the rand.