EUR/ZAR Outlook:
Bearish, since the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank has kept rates steady, contrasting the South African Reserve Bank's high rates aimed at curbing inflation, widening the gap in interest rates.
• Risk/commodities: Recent volatility in oil prices, which are at 7-day lows, creates a backdrop impacting both currencies; a weaker oil market generally affects the rand negatively.
• One macro factor: Ongoing concerns regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation continue to exert downward pressure on the Euro, limiting its strength.
Range:
The EUR/ZAR is likely to drift near the lower end of its recent range, given its current position.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant improvement in geopolitical stability or a stronger coordinated monetary policy response from the ECB could support the euro.
• Downside risk: Further declines in global commodity prices or increased inflation in the Eurozone may exacerbate the euro's weakness.