Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, EUR/ZAR sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the three-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The ECB's policy rate remains well below the SARB's, giving the rand an attractive yield backdrop.
- Oil: Oil is above its three-month average and remains volatile, a pattern that tends to weigh on the rand through higher energy costs and inflation risk.
- Macro: The ECB is expected to stay neutral in 2026, limiting euro strength and keeping EUR relatively steady versus the rand.
Range: EUR/ZAR is likely to drift within the recent band, with a bias toward the lower end.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: unexpectedly strong eurozone data or signs of a more hawkish ECB could lift EUR versus the rand.
- Downside risk: further rand strengthening from improving domestic data or additional SARB rate cuts.