EUR/ZAR Outlook:
The EUR/ZAR rate is slightly positive, currently trading above its 90-day average and in the mid-range of its recent movement. However, the uncertainty around geopolitics and energy prices may limit stronger gains.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The European Central Bank (ECB) faces challenges from high energy inflation, contrasting with the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) improving fiscal discipline.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly above average, which tends to pressure the euro due to rising energy costs impacting the Eurozone economy.
• One macro factor: South Africa’s credit rating upgrade has improved investor confidence and is expected to support the rand.
Range:
The EUR/ZAR pair is likely to drift within its recent range, balancing between 18.74 and 19.83.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could support the euro's recovery.
• Downside risk: Continued rising oil prices could further pressure the euro, leading to a weaker EUR/ZAR.