Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as EUR/ZAR sits below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The ECB's policy rate remains well below SARB's, keeping a yield edge for the rand, though the pace of divergence has cooled as SA signals growth resilience.
- Risk/commodities: Oil is at 90-day highs and volatile, supporting risk appetite and commodity exporters; that backdrop can lift the rand during positive flows, though sharp moves can mirror USD strength in risk-off sessions.
- Macro factor: Inflation in SA is projected to hover around mid-4% in 2026, keeping the SARB on a steady path and supporting rand stability.
Range: Likely to drift within the 3-month corridor, with occasional tests of the lower end on softer data and limited upside catalysts.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: A hawkish surprise from the ECB or stronger Eurozone data could lift EUR versus the rand.
- Downside risk: Further SARB rate cuts or cooler SA inflation could push EUR/ZAR toward the lower end of the range.