The EUR/ZAR pair is currently bearish-to-range-bound, as it is trading below the 90-day average and within the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The European Central Bank's cautious monetary stance contrasts with the South African Reserve Bank's recent interest rate cut, which is supportive of ZAR appreciation.
- Risk/commodities: With oil prices above their recent average, there is potential for ZAR volatility, as higher oil prices can impact South Africa's import bill and its currency's health.
- One macro factor: The improving economic conditions in South Africa, reflected in rising investments and confidence in rand-denominated bonds, bolster the ZAR's position.
Range: The EUR/ZAR is likely to drift within its recent range, with limited movement expected as traders weigh economic data from both regions.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: An unexpected rebound in Eurozone economic data could boost EUR demand significantly.
- Downside risk: A further decline in global risk appetite could lead to increased selling pressure on emerging market currencies like the ZAR.