The exchange rate forecast for HKD to INR indicates a period of significant volatility and underlying challenges for both currencies. Recently, HKD has been trading at 14-day lows around 11.51, only marginally above its three-month average of 11.44. Analysts note that the currency has maintained a stable range between 11.29 and 11.69, yet pressures from both economic and external factors may lead to potential shifts.
For the Hong Kong Dollar, the recent reduction in the base interest rate by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on October 30, 2025, aims to stimulate economic activity amidst global pressures. This reduction aligns with U.S. monetary policy, but it has added to the interest rate differential, further influencing carry trade dynamics. Frequent interventions by the HKMA to support the HKD against the backdrop of capital inflows and interest rate challenges underline the ongoing effort to maintain the currency peg within its permissible trading band.
Conversely, the Indian Rupee faces significant downward pressure, recently hitting a record low of 90.42 per U.S. dollar. The depreciation of the INR has been attributed to a widening trade deficit, high tariffs on exports, and substantial foreign investment outflows totaling approximately $17 billion in 2025. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of India appears to be tolerating a weaker rupee, prioritizing stability in volatility over defending a specific exchange rate amid diminishing dollar inflows.
Market observers note that the trajectory of the HKD to INR exchange rate is likely to remain influenced by these domestic developments, as well as global economic trends. The ongoing challenges for the INR, alongside the supportive measures for the HKD, suggest that businesses and individuals should remain cautious in their international transactions and consider potential fluctuations in this currency pair. Speculation around future developments, including potential trade agreements, will also be crucial in shaping market sentiment moving forward.
