Recent analyst forecasts suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) against the Malaysian ringgit (MYR). As of early September 2025, the HKD is trading at 30-day highs near 0.5421 MYR, slightly above its three-month average, indicating a period of stability within a narrow range of 0.5347 to 0.5471.
Key developments influencing the HKD include steady retail sales growth, which rose by 1.8% year-on-year in July 2025, and a continued increase in home prices, highlighting resilient domestic demand. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's intervention to defend the HKD’s peg against the US dollar underscores its commitment to maintaining currency stability amidst external pressures. Analysts note that robust capital inflows into Hong Kong are further supporting the currency, with the financial account surplus showing a significant increase.
Conversely, the Malaysian Ringgit faces challenges, particularly following Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to cut the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) to 2.75%. This represents the first reduction in five years, aimed at bolstering economic growth affected by external trade pressures, including tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Malaysian exports. Economic indicators suggest a cautious sentiment among investors, following geopolitical tensions that have adversely impacted risk appetite for Asian currencies, including the MYR.
The relationship between oil prices and the MYR is also crucial. Recently, oil prices have reached 90-day lows near 65.50 USD, falling 5.1% below the three-month average, which could exert additional pressure on the MYR, given Malaysia's reliance on oil exports. Analysts forecast limited upside for the MYR unless oil prices recover and investor sentiment shifts positively.
In summary, while analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the HKD's performance, the MYR faces headwinds from domestic monetary policy changes and external economic pressures. Currency traders and businesses should monitor these developments closely to navigate potential fluctuations in HKD/MYR exchanges effectively.
