Recent forecasts and market updates indicate a complex outlook for the HKD to MYR exchange rate. Currently, the HKD is trading at 90-day lows near 0.5208, which is 2.6% below its three-month average of 0.5348. Over the past months, the HKD has experienced significant fluctuations due to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) interventions, aimed at maintaining the currency peg to the US dollar amid varying capital flows and market conditions. This proactive approach by the HKMA has included both selling HKD to strengthen it and buying it when it weakened, reflecting its commitment to stability.
Meanwhile, the MYR has gained considerable strength, appreciating over 8% in 2025, largely driven by a weaker US dollar and positive economic indicators. Recent reports highlight that Malaysia's GDP growth in Q3 2025 surpassed expectations, which has bolstered investor confidence and supports the MYR's upward trajectory. Bank Negara Malaysia's decision to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate at 3.00% further signals confidence in the country's economic resilience.
The recent trade agreement with the United States has also enhanced Malaysia's trade competitiveness, positively influencing the MYR. Experts suggest that ongoing positive sentiment towards Malaysia's economy could lead to further strengthening of the MYR, putting upward pressure on the HKD to MYR exchange rate.
Additionally, recent trends in oil prices may have indirect implications for the MYR, given its sensitivity to oil price movements. Currently, oil prices are at $60.89, which is 3.9% below their three-month average of $63.35 and have exhibited significant volatility. A continuing decline in oil prices may negatively affect the MYR’s strength if it impacts Malaysia’s export revenues.
Overall, market analysts will be closely monitoring both the HKD's pegged status and the MYR's strengthening narrative. The interplay between these elements, along with oil price trends, will be crucial in shaping the future trajectory of the HKD to MYR exchange rate.
