The recent forecast for the HKD to SGD exchange rate is influenced by multiple developments affecting both currencies. As of September 9, 2025, the HKD is trading at 0.1650 SGD, which is approximately 0.7% above its three-month average of 0.1639. The HKD has shown stability, fluctuating within a narrow range of 2.0% from 0.1620 to 0.1653.
Analysts note that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has actively defended the HKD through significant market interventions, including a purchase of HK$9.4 billion as the currency neared its trading band limit against the US dollar. This action underscores the commitment to the peg to the USD, affirmed by Chief Executive John Lee amidst geopolitical tensions and US policy volatility. Forecasters suggest that such interventions may temporarily bolster the HKD, but the underlying volatility due to external pressures remains a concern.
Meanwhile, the Singapore Dollar (SGD) maintains a stable monetary policy. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has opted to keep its policy settings unchanged, citing a quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 1.4% in Q2 2025, which has helped avoid a technical recession. However, the future outlook remains mixed. Experts indicate that while easing trade tensions have positively influenced current decision-making, there is uncertainty regarding growth implications for 2026.
The divergence in policy approaches could lead to varying outcomes for the HKD/SGD exchange rate. Economists are divided on MAS's potential future actions, with some predicting no changes while others suggest the possibility of further easing to address a potential negative output gap. This uncertainty could affect the SGD's performance moving forward.
Overall, market participants are advised to stay vigilant as these developments unfold, particularly in light of the HKMA's aggressive stance in supporting the HKD and the MAS's cautious approach in navigating economic growth and inflation trends.
