Recent forecasts for the HKD to SGD exchange rate reflect a complex interplay of monetary policies and economic conditions influencing both currencies. Currently, the HKD is trading at 0.1673, which is 1.0% higher than its three-month average of 0.1656, indicating stability within a narrow range of 3.1% from 0.1631 to 0.1682.
Analysts note that the recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has heightened market sensitivity to the HKD. This aligns the HKMA's policy more closely with that of the U.S. Federal Reserve, potentially leading to further depreciation of the HKD if the Fed maintains its rate policies. The HKMA's interventions to support the HKD demonstrate its commitment to currency stability, especially following the activation of the weak-side Convertibility Undertaking and significant market interventions earlier in the year.
On the other hand, the Singapore dollar remains bolstered by the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) decision to keep its monetary policy unchanged in light of robust economic growth. With Singapore's GDP growth exceeding expectations at 2.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, this positive outlook positions the SGD favorably against the HKD. Additionally, a downward revision in core inflation forecasts signifies easing inflationary pressures, which adds to the SGD's strength.
Market experts suggest that the divergence in monetary policy and economic resilience between Hong Kong and Singapore may lead the HKD to struggle against the SGD in the medium term. While the HKD benefits from immediate interventions aimed at maintaining its peg, the broader economic context favors the SGD, especially if Singapore's economic momentum continues while global economic uncertainties linger.
Thus, businesses and individuals engaging in transactions involving HKD and SGD should closely monitor these developments, as shifts in monetary policy and economic performance could lead to notable fluctuations in the exchange rate.
