The exchange rate forecast for the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) to Thai Baht (THB) reflects a backdrop of recent monetary policy changes and intervention measures by both the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and the Bank of Thailand (BoT). As of November 11, 2025, the HKD traded near 60-day lows at approximately 4.1070 THB, which is 1.1% below its three-month average of 4.1521. This exchange rate has remained relatively stable within a 4.0% range from 4.0643 to 4.2261, highlighting the current pressures on the HKD.
Recent interest rate cuts by the HKMA, with reductions in September and October 2025 aligning with U.S. Federal Reserve actions, have led to a more accommodative monetary environment. Analysts suggest that these cuts have contributed to a decline in interbank rates, which may weaken the HKD's position as it navigates the pegged currency system against the U.S. dollar. Additionally, the HKMA's intervention, aimed at supporting the HKD by purchasing billions in the foreign exchange market, reflects ongoing efforts to uphold currency stability amid external pressures.
Conversely, the Thai Baht has faced challenges due to its rapid appreciation, reaching a four-year high in September. The Thai government and BoT have introduced measures to curb this strength, including interventions to oversee capital inflows and manage gold trading activities associated with the currency's fluctuations. Economists observe that this strong THB could potentially disrupt Thailand's export-driven economy, as noted in the government's calls for liquidity support from banks.
Furthermore, oil price dynamics, which play a significant role in the Thai economy, have seen OIL to USD trading at 62.38, indicating a decline of 4.1% from the three-month average of 65.05. This downward trend in oil prices, alongside ongoing currency interventions, suggests a nuanced environment for the THB, potentially affecting its relationship with the HKD.
As forecasts evolve, market participants should closely monitor developments surrounding monetary policies in both Hong Kong and Thailand, as well as the direction of oil prices, to better navigate the HKD/THB exchange rate landscape.
