The current market bias for the HKD to THB exchange rate is bearish.
Key drivers include the interest rate differential, as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is expected to maintain stable rates while Thailand anticipates stronger growth supported by a robust current account surplus. Additionally, the Thai Baht is projected to strengthen due to capital inflows, which may further press on the HKD. Recent inflation expectations in Hong Kong are moderate, with a projected rate of 1.9% for 2026.
In the near term, the HKD to THB exchange rate may continue to hover in a relatively stable range, influenced by recent movements around 4.0468, which is notably below its three-month average.
A potential upside risk could arise from unexpected gains in global risk sentiment allowing for a rebound in the HKD. Conversely, a downside risk lies in ongoing challenges for the Thai economy, which, if exacerbated, may weaken the Baht and impact the exchange rate trajectory.