Recent forecasts indicate that the USD to IDR exchange rate remains under pressure, with the USD experiencing significant volatility following disappointing labor market data from the United States. Analysts noted that the US economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, sharply lower than expectations, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve could consider cutting interest rates. This has created an atmosphere of uncertainty around the USD, particularly as revised payroll figures for June were even worse, highlighting potential weaknesses in the US economy.
Market analysts suggest that the downward trend in the USD may extend if upcoming economic indicators, such as factory orders, continue to show weakness. The current price of USD to IDR is hovering near 60-day highs at approximately 16,490, just slightly above its 3-month average. This stability in exchange rates has seen the pair fluctuate within a narrow range from 16,159 to 16,699, indicating cautious trading amidst these uncertain conditions.
On the other hand, the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) has come under intense selling pressure, hitting its lowest historical levels against the USD. The IDR's decline has been exacerbated by rising trade tensions, particularly stemming from tariffs imposed by the US on Indonesian goods as part of broader trade disputes. The government's handling of fiscal policy under President Prabowo Subianto has also raised concerns among investors, further destabilizing the currency.
Given the intertwined nature of global trade and currency movements, forecasts suggest that any further escalation in trade tensions or negative economic news from the US may lead to additional weakness in the IDR. Economists warn that the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the Federal Reserve's policy direction will remain crucial in determining the future trajectory of both the USD and IDR. As such, individuals and businesses engaged in international transactions should closely monitor these developments to navigate the currency fluctuations effectively.