MXN to CAD 2025 Forecasts

09 MayRecent forecasts indicate that the CAD to MXN exchange rate is under pressure due to a mix of domestic concerns in Canada and external geopolitical developments related to Mexico. The Canadian dollar (CAD), often influenced by fluctuations in oil prices, has seen selling pressure despite a recent uptick in crude prices. Analysts note that the CAD is trading near 30-day lows at approximately 14.03, which is 1.4% below its three-month average of 14.23. This downward movement comes as Canada's unemployment rate captures market attention, with expectations of a rise potentially leading to further weakness in the currency.

Meanwhile, the Mexican peso (MXN) is experiencing volatility as traders react to developments in US-Mexico trade relations following recent tariff announcements. The peso initially fell against the US dollar but later managed to rebound after reports of potential negotiations to ease tariffs, leading to renewed optimism about the peso's stability. However, the peso's performance remains uncertain amidst President Claudia Sheinbaum's remarks regarding retaliatory measures against US tariffs, which adds to the currency's short-term volatility.

From a broader perspective, the Canadian dollar remains vulnerable to shifts in the oil market, currently trading at $62.84 per barrel, which is notably 9.8% below its three-month average of $69.67. This reduction in oil prices could dampen demand for the CAD, as Canada’s economy heavily relies on oil exports. Market analysts suggest that any significant recovery in oil prices will be pivotal for the loonie's strength. In the coming weeks, observers will need to pay close attention to the Bank of Canada's policy decisions and upcoming economic indicators, as these will be critical for the CAD's trajectory.

Overall, with the CAD facing headwinds from both domestic and international factors, and the MXN reacting to evolving trade negotiations, the CAD/MXN exchange rate is poised for potential fluctuations. The interplay between oil prices, trade tensions, and economic data will be significant in shaping future movements in this currency pair.