MYR/INR Outlook:
The MYR is trading close to recent highs at 23.42, which is notably above its 90-day average of 22.55. This positions the outlook as bullish, driven by strong economic performance and increased foreign investments in Malaysia.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: Bank Negara Malaysia's policy rate is stable at 2.75%, while the U.S. Federal Reserve has slowed its rate hikes, narrowing the interest rate gap and boosting the MYR.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are significantly high, with recent trends showing Brent Crude OIL/USD trading above average, positively impacting the MYR given its links to the energy sector.
• One macro factor: Malaysia's 5.2% GDP growth has highlighted resilience in domestic consumption and key sectors, further supporting the MYR.
Range:
The MYR/INR is likely to hold around current levels, possibly testing the higher extreme within the 3-month range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A potential increase in FDI into Malaysia could strengthen the MYR further.
• Downside risk: Any geopolitical tensions impacting trade with India could pressure the INR, affecting MYR/INR dynamics.