MYR/INR Outlook:
Likely to increase, supported by a strong position above the 90-day average and near recent highs.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank Negara Malaysia's recent policies have led to a stronger MYR relative to the Reserve Bank of India's actions.
• Risk/commodities: Despite current oil price volatility, a moderately higher oil price supports the MYR, as Malaysia is a significant palm oil and crude oil exporter.
• One macro factor: Malaysia's resilient economy, with 5.2% GDP growth driven by exports and domestic consumption, boosts confidence in the MYR.
Range:
MYR/INR is likely to hold its current position but may test recent highs within the volatile 10.5% range.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A further decline in U.S. interest rates could enhance the MYR’s attractiveness.
• Downside risk: A worsening of India's current account deficit could put pressure on the INR, affecting the MYR/INR exchange rate.