MYR/INR Outlook:
Slightly positive, but likely to move sideways as the rate is above its recent average and shows no clear driver to push it higher.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Bank Negara Malaysia has reduced interest rates more aggressively than the Reserve Bank of India, resulting in a stronger MYR against the INR.
• Risk/commodities: The rise in oil prices supports the MYR due to Malaysia's status as an oil exporter, while India's reliance on oil imports puts pressure on the INR.
• One macro factor: Malaysia's robust GDP growth of 5.2% indicates economic resilience, while India's persistent current account deficit continues to undermine the INR.
Range:
Expect the MYR/INR to hold within its recent 3-month range as both currencies show mixed signals.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A significant increase in oil prices could further strengthen the MYR.
• Downside risk: Continued outflows of foreign portfolio investment from India may weaken the INR further.