The exchange rate forecast for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) against the Thai Baht (THB) has recently become more complex, primarily due to escalating trade tensions initiated by U.S. tariffs. Analysts note that the U.S. has imposed a reciprocal tariff of 24% on Malaysian goods and a more significant 36% on Thai imports. This has intensified fears of a global trade war, leading to a general depreciation of emerging Asian currencies, including both the MYR and THB, which have recently declined by approximately 2%.
Market sentiment reflects increased volatility, as recent price data indicates that the MYR to THB exchange rate has reached 14-day highs near 7.6735, just below the three-month average. This pair has experienced a relatively stable trading range of 3.0%, oscillating between 7.5977 and 7.8265. However, the broader outlook remains cautious due to the deteriorating conditions, as regional currencies continue to react to the implications of the ongoing trade disputes.
Furthermore, the MYR is influenced heavily by oil price movements, which are critical given Malaysia's status as a significant oil exporter. With Brent Crude OIL/USD currently at 68.44—1.5% above its three-month average—this trend may offer some support for the MYR. The volatility in oil prices—having swung dramatically between 60.14 to 78.85, a range of 31.1%—remains a crucial factor that market participants should consider when evaluating the MYR's performance against the THB.
In summary, while there are temporary stabilizing factors for the MYR against the THB, including oil price trends, the broader economic environment shaped by U.S. tariffs poses significant risks for both currencies. Analysts suggest monitoring these developments closely, as they will likely dictate future exchange rate movements.