The recent exchange rate forecasts for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) against the Vietnamese Đồng (VND) are influenced by a blend of domestic developments and global economic factors. Analysts have noted that the MYR is currently trading at 6236 VND, which is 1.3% above its three-month average of 6158 VND, indicating a relatively stable range with fluctuations between 6035 and 6248 VND.
Key factors affecting the MYR include the impact of U.S. tariffs, which have imposed a significant burden on Malaysia's import dynamics. The U.S. has introduced a 24% tariff on Malaysian goods, raising concerns about the stability of the MYR. Conversely, expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could diminish the strength of the U.S. dollar, potentially allowing the MYR to appreciate. Moreover, robust foreign direct investment inflows to Malaysia, along with a focus on domestic economic reforms, will likely bolster confidence in the MYR.
For the VND, the situation remains complex, with the U.S. enacting a 46% reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese products, leading to market volatility. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting a continued decline in global inflation for 2025, which may pave the way for more accommodative monetary policies from the State Bank of Vietnam, influencing the VND's stability positively. Vietnam's economy, which expanded by 7.09% in 2024, is projected to keep growing, driven largely by exports and foreign investment.
The dynamics of oil prices also play a critical role in both currencies' performance. Recent market data indicates that crude oil is trading at $65.85 per barrel, 3.8% below its three-month average of $68.46, indicating a volatile market with a range between $62.78 and $78.85. As a major oil exporter, Malaysia's economy is sensitive to these shifts, and lower oil prices may negatively impact the MYR in the short term, despite the potential benefits from easing U.S. monetary policies.
In summary, for the MYR to VND exchange rate, ongoing geopolitical developments, tariff negotiations, fluctuating oil prices, and global economic trends are significant determinants. These intricate factors suggest that both currencies may experience volatility, and stakeholders are advised to stay informed on market conditions and emerging economic policies.
