Forecasts for MYR to VND
Recent forecasts and currency market updates indicate a challenging outlook for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) against the Vietnamese Dong (VND), primarily driven by escalating trade tensions and regional currency volatility. Analysts note that the introduction of a 24% reciprocal tariff on Malaysian imports by the U.S. has significantly affected market sentiment, leading to a bearish outlook for emerging Asian currencies, including the MYR. Following the announcement, regional currencies experienced marked declines, with the Thai baht and South Korean won each falling approximately 2%, reflecting growing fears of a global trade war that have dampened risk appetite across Asia.
In the immediate term, the MYR has shown some resilience, rising to 14-day highs near 6134, which is 4.3% above its 3-month average of 5879. The exchange rate has remained relatively stable within a 7.8% range, fluctuating between 5723 and 6172 in recent weeks. However, with the backdrop of tariffs and slowing growth, market observers, including economists, suggest that this upward movement may not be sustained if external pressures continue.
Additionally, fluctuations in oil prices – a crucial factor for Malaysia as a major oil exporter – also play a role in the MYR's performance. Current prices for oil are 4.8% below the 3-month average at 64.78 USD, showing volatility within a significant 24.7% range from 60.14 to 75.02 USD. Experts indicate that further declines in oil prices could exacerbate the MYR's challenges, impacting its stability against the VND and other currencies.
As Malaysia's Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, leads efforts to coordinate a regional response to U.S. tariffs, the overall climate for the MYR remains fraught with uncertainty. While the current exchange rate offers some short-term optimism, analysts caution that geopolitical tensions and external economic factors could disrupt this momentum, underscoring the need for ongoing monitoring of both the MYR and broader market trends.
