The exchange rate forecasts for the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) against the Vietnamese Đồng (VND) are shaped by a combination of domestic monetary policy, international trade dynamics, and broader economic factors. Recently, the MYR has shown strength, trading near 6,276 VND, which is significantly above its three-month average of 6,195 VND, reflecting a rally in the currency.
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its overnight policy rate at 2.75% this September, indicating a stable outlook in relation to inflation and economic growth. Earlier in July, BNM had cut rates for the first time in five years to address concerns over global trade tensions and slower economic growth, prompting analysts to project a strengthened MYR. Forecasts suggest the MYR could reach between RM4.10 to RM4.15 against the US dollar by December 2025, driven by potential fiscal reforms and anticipated rate cuts.
In contrast, the Vietnamese Đồng faces significant headwinds. The UOB's forecast anticipates further VND depreciation, predicting a drop to 25,800 per USD in Q2 and 26,000 in Q3 2025, which is attributed to factors such as the adverse impact of US tariffs and ongoing economic pressures. The imposition of a 46% tariff on Vietnamese exports is particularly detrimental, coupled with a strong U.S. Dollar Index that is expected to exert continuous pressure on the VND throughout the year.
Trade dynamics between the two currencies are intertwined with external factors, including oil prices, as Malaysia's economy is sensitive to fluctuations in oil value. Currently, oil prices are around $66.99, which is below the three-month average of $68.98, reflecting recent volatility. Such movements in oil prices can impact the MYR’s strength, given that Malaysia is a significant exporter of oil.
In summary, the MYR appears to be on a bullish trajectory against the VND, supported by stable monetary policy and modest expectations of appreciation. However, the VND is likely to continue facing pressures from tariff implications and economic challenges, leading to a cautious outlook for its performance in the near future.
