Recent forecasts and currency market updates indicate a complex landscape for the MYR to VND exchange rate, influenced by a combination of Malaysian and Vietnamese economic developments.
The Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) has been under pressure due to interest rate cuts instituted by Bank Negara Malaysia, which reduced the Overnight Policy Rate to 2.75% amid global economic uncertainties. Economists suggest that despite these challenges, the MYR may strengthen against the U.S. dollar, driven by robust economic fundamentals and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. This sentiment is reflected in the current MYR to VND exchange rate, which stands at 6270, only 0.8% above the three-month average of 6221, indicating relative stability within a tight range of 6130 to 6297.
On the other hand, developments concerning the Vietnamese đồng (VND) paint a less optimistic picture. Forecasts from Vietcombank Securities predict a depreciation of around 3% against the U.S. dollar in 2025, primarily due to a strengthening U.S. currency. Additionally, the State Bank of Vietnam has actively intervened in the market, recently selling approximately $1.5 billion in forward contracts to support the VND amidst volatility.
Furthermore, Vietnam's introduction of a licensing regime for cryptocurrency exchanges signals a push towards greater financial regulation, likely contributing to the overall stability of the currency. New regulations regarding large money transfers aim to enhance transparency, which could also impact the VND's stability moving forward.
External factors, particularly oil prices, further affect the MYR, given Malaysia's status as a significant oil exporter. With oil prices trading at $64.53, which is 5% below its three-month average, fluctuations in oil prices could lead to shifts in the MYR's performance, potentially influencing its exchange rate against the VND.
In summary, while the MYR benefits from global monetary policy shifts and local economic resilience, the VND faces pressures from external depreciation factors and regulatory changes. Stakeholders in international transactions should carefully monitor these dynamics to navigate the MYR to VND exchange rate effectively.
