Bias: MYR/VND is currently bullish-to-range-bound as it stands above the 90-day average and in the upper half of its 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Malaysian central bank's interest rate outlook is more favorable than Vietnam's, supporting the MYR's relative strength.
• Risk/commodities: With oil prices trending above average, the strength of Malaysia's oil exports benefits the MYR while aiding its trade balance.
• Macro factor: Vietnam's projected GDP growth is solid at 7% for 2026, which could bolster the VND if realized.
Range: The MYR/VND pair is likely to test the recent upper extremes while finding support within the stable range observed over the past three months.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A sustained rise in global oil prices could further boost the MYR.
• Downside risk: A significant shift in Vietnam's monetary policy could diminish the VND's appeal.