TRY to EUR Forecast & Outlook
23 May 2026 • 01:05 GMT
📊 Forecast snapshot
- Near-term bias: 🔴 Mild downside
- Expected range: 0.0180 – 0.0190
- Dominant driver: 🌍 Global risk sentiment
- 3-month trend: ⚪ Range-bound
Currently, TRY/EUR is trading near the recent lows, holding close to its 90-day average with risk-off sentiment as the dominant driver. With Turkey's high inflation at 28.5% and recent rate hikes not fully easing pressure, the pair remains under downward bias. Near-term conditions suggest the Turkish Lira may face more pressure if risk aversion persists or euro sentiment turns cautious.
💸 Transfer implications
- Expats: sending money to Euro zone countries may find TRY less favourable than recent levels if the pair weakens further.
- Travellers: buying Euro cash or loading currency cards might encounter slightly higher costs if the pair declines.
- Businesses: paying Euro invoices using Turkish Lira could see less advantageous exchange rates should the pair trend lower.
🧭 Key drivers
- Rate gap: The Turkish central bank’s cautious rate hikes have yet to narrow the interest rate gap with euro-zone yields.
- Risk/commodities: A risk-off environment driven by inflation fears and geopolitical tension supports safe-haven currencies.
- Global factors: The overall risk sentiment remains fragile, with global inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions weighing on emerging market FX.
⚠️ What could change it
- Upside risk: A shift towards risk-on conditions or easing geopolitical tensions might support Turkish Lira recovery.
- Downside risk: Persistent global risk-off or further euro weakness could push TRY/EUR lower.
BER suggests comparing FX providers to help offset less favourable exchange conditions and find lower margins to reduce total transfer costs.