AUD/HKD - Rate Guide

Australian Dollar (AUD)

In early August the Australian dollar sunk to a 10 year low of 67¢ (Aug-7) to the US dollar. This was due to the offshore yuan breaking the symbolic and closely watched USD/CNY = 7.0 exchange rate, after the trade war flared up again and the US labelled China a "currency manipulator".

Investors have sold AUD in recent months as they’ve bet on aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. These bets paid off: the RBA cut its cash rate in both June and July to a record low of 1 percent.

Lower borrowing costs are necessary, investors believe, in light of persistently soft domestic data and the fallout from a US-China trade standoff that shows no sign of nearing an end.

AUD will continue to track changes in interest-rate expectations. Economists expect at least one further cut this year and many expect two by early 2020. After July's cut, the RBA hinted it would leave rates unchanged for several months.

Interestingly, AUD has decoupled from commodity prices in 2019. The price of iron ore (Australia’s largest export) nears multi-year highs while AUD languishes.

Further RBA interest rate cuts this year are now a certainty, and that doesn’t bode well for currency valuations. Westpac has predicted three cuts this year.

Read more in the article AUD Forecasts.

Hong Kong Dollar (HKD)

The Hong Kong dollar has gained value in 2019 despite the recent protests and also serious escalation in US-China trade tensions, mainly because the US dollar, to which HKD is pegged, is attracting safe-haven inflows. By May-17, against a basket of important currencies, HKD was worth 2 percent more year-to-date, and was only 0.5 percent away from making a 2-year high.

HKD was doing particularly well against the Australian dollar. It was, at the time of writing, valued 18 percent higher than 2018 lows against AUD and needed only a further 2.3 percent to reach a 10-year high. Though HKD was meeting significant resistance in mid-May at the 5.4 per AUD level, a break of this could spark significant appreciation.

Read more in the article HKD Forecasts.

The mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news. It is actually just the half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the AUD / HKD was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.

All foreign exchange providers charge a fee for providing their service and this fee is usually contained within the exchange rate margin (or difference to the mid-rate). Some providers such as Transferwise will quote you the mid-rate (or close to) and charge a separate percentage fee.