IDR/THB - Live Converters & Chart

Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) outlook

The rupiah slipped in mid-May to 4-month lows against the US dollar (Rp.14,450) and yen (Rp.132), though it was steady against the Australian dollar (Rp.9,960). This pattern shows how much of the rupiah’s recent movements have been driven by risk sentiment. The rupiah remains historically weak, given its proximity to October’s 20-year low of Rp.15,265 per USD.

Weighing on investor sentiment this year has been the significant escalation in US-China trade tensions. Washington and Beijing both stepped up measures against one another.

For the rupiah, not helping matters in May was news of Indonesia’s worst monthly trade deficit in 6 years, at US$2.5 billion.

With exports struggling, Indonesia’s central bank is under pressure to lower interest rates from 6 percent, but having already pledged to support the rupiah, these rate cuts are unlikely to come, for now.

Capital Economics said in May that the rupiah would be “vulnerable to sudden falls during periods of weak risk appetite.”

DBS warned of “dire consequences” for emerging market currencies like the rupiah if no trade agreement is struck between the US and China.

Thai Baht (THB) outlook

Recent years have been extremely kind to the baht, although not so kind to Thailand’s exporters. At various points in 2019, against the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar and British pound, the baht has traded at its highest level in a decade or longer.

The baht’s year-to-date gain of 1.7 percent against the US dollar (to March-28) puts the baht among the year’s best performing currencies.

In March, per a Reuters currency positioning poll, FX traders were increasing their bets on Thai baht appreciation.

The chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations predicted earlier this year that the baht would continue to appreciate over the medium to long term as capital flows return to Thailand in the face of a more gradual rise in US interest rates and as the US economy slows down.

The IDR/THB mid-rate is the rate you will see quoted online or the news, nobody except the largest banks and businesses can get exchange rates close to this mid-rate. It is actually just the theoretical half-way point (hence mid-rate) between the last rate at which the IDR / THB was traded (bought or sold) in the international markets.