The USD to THB exchange rate is currently range-bound.
Key drivers include:
- The Federal Reserve is expected to implement additional rate cuts, which may weaken the USD.
- The Thai baht is projected to strengthen due to capital inflows and a strong current account surplus.
- Global economic growth, along with rising commodity prices, is anticipated to increase volatility in 2026.
In the near term, the exchange rate is expected to stay within a stable range relative to current levels, as it has maintained stability in the past few months.
An upside risk could arise from stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S., while a downside risk might be an acceleration in ASEAN’s shift away from the USD, impacting demand for the dollar in the region.