The market bias for the USD to THB exchange rate is bearish.
Key drivers include the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are expected to weaken the USD in the upcoming months. The Thai Baht may strengthen due to a robust current account surplus and foreign capital inflows. Additionally, the economic outlook suggests potential headwinds for Thailand, including slow export growth and a projected modest GDP increase.
The near-term trading range is likely to remain stable, with the USD expected to trade lower against the THB. Recent data indicates that the USD is currently around 1.8% lower than its three-month average, while the THB is forecasted to appreciate.
An upside risk could stem from unexpected improvements in the US economy that may bolster the USD. Conversely, a downside risk includes geopolitical tensions that might disrupt capital flows to Thailand, impacting the THB negatively.