Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, USD/THB around 31.23, below its 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
- Rate gap: The US Federal Reserve is expected to ease policy in 2026 while the Bank of Thailand has already loosened policy, narrowing the rate gap.
- Risk/commodities: Oil sits near 30-day highs with higher volatility; firmer oil can support emerging markets and Thai exports, but higher energy costs can weigh on local demand.
- Macro: The baht is seen to appreciate in 2026 as the US dollar weakens and Thai current account strength supports inflows.
Range: USD/THB is likely to hover within the 3-month range, with a drift toward the middle and fewer quick tests of the extremes as liquidity remains uneven, so traders should stay alert to Fed signals and Thai policy shifts.
What could change it:
- Upside risk: stronger US payrolls data and firmer Fed stance that keeps the USD well bid.
- Downside risk: softer US data or a bigger improvement in Thai growth attracting capital and boosting the THB.