Bias: Bearish-to-range-bound, as the USD is below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts may weaken the USD, while Thailand maintains a lower interest rate to stimulate growth.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently above their average, which may support the THB due to its impact on the Thai economy.
• One macro factor: Thailand's economy is projected to grow below potential this year, which could put pressure on the THB despite other supportive factors.
Range: The USD/THB is likely to hold steady in this lower range, with occasional movements but not significant breaks in either direction.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data could bolster the USD's position.
• Downside risk: Any dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials could further weaken the USD against the THB.
