Bias: bearish-to-range-bound, as USD/THB sits below the 90-day average and in the lower half of the 3-month range.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The US policy path remains above Thailand’s easing cycle, keeping USD support; any quicker Fed easing would narrow the gap.
• Risk/commodities: Oil sits near multi-week highs and is volatile, which tends to pressure THB on import costs while supporting dollar strength on risk moves.
• Macro factor: US payrolls and unemployment data in coming releases will steer the Fed’s pace of easing.
Range: USD/THB is expected to drift within the 3-month range, gently hovering toward the lower end.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: Hawkish Fed tone or stronger US jobs data could lift the dollar and push USD/THB higher.
• Downside risk: Faster-than-expected Fed rate cuts or better Thai data improving appetite could push USD/THB lower.
