USD/THB Outlook: Bearish, as the rate is below its recent average and near recent lows due to ongoing concerns over US economic stability.
Key drivers:
• Rate gap: The Federal Reserve is expected to ease rates, while the Bank of Thailand has recently cut rates, contributing to a weakening USD against the THB.
• Risk/commodities: Oil prices are currently high, which can lead to increased costs and reduced competitiveness for the US, further pressuring the USD.
• One macro factor: The recent delay in increasing tariffs by the US may not instill confidence amidst geopolitical tensions, affecting USD performance.
Range: The USD/THB is likely to drift lower within the recent range as the market adjusts to these pressures.
What could change it:
• Upside risk: A surprising improvement in US job data could boost the USD.
• Downside risk: Any sudden escalation in geopolitical tensions could further weaken the USD.
