This is the current USD-JPY mid-market exchange rate. The Total Cost of buying foreign currency in the above table is calculated as the sum of all fees and the exchange rate margin, which is the difference between the provider's exchange rate and the mid-market USD-JPY exchange rate.
Whenever you are researching a particular exchange rate you are actually interested in two currencies as the value of a currency must always be quoted relative to a second currency.
So it follows that if you are determining the best time to transact, in this case the USD vs JPY, you should pay attention to both United States Dollar and Japanese Yen news and forecasts.
In the third week of April the Dollar Index was rallying strongly towards the mid-97s, slightly below major resistance at 97.70, a break of which would be massively positive for the greenback. The index was up 1.7 percent year-to-date.
The dollar’s strength comes in spite of a dovish surprise in March from the Federal Reserve, which ditched two interest rate hikes from its 2019 projections. Fortunately for dollar holders, the rest of the world has problems and other important central banks also turned dovish, removing much of the incentive for selling USD.
Bloomberg research warned in April of potential for a large upcoming move in the US dollar, up or down. Over the past quarter-century, three prominent troughs in the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index were followed by dollar moves over 6-month periods worth 10-15 percent. The index was trading in mid-April at a 5-year low.
Early in 2019, in the midst of a “flash crash” in JPY cross rates, the yen briefly struck a 9-month high against the US dollar (a 10-year high against the Australian dollar) but has since steadily lost value, and in the third week of April it was among the worst performing internationally-important currencies. Year-to-date, the yen was down by 2 percent against USD (¥112), by 3.4 percent against AUD (¥80), by 4 percent against GBP (¥145.5), and was even down by a marginal 0.2 percent against a weak euro (¥125.9).
Citibank continues to forecast a much stronger yen in 6-12 months’ time; it foresees USD/JPY falling to ¥105 and AUD/JPY in the high ¥77s.
For the end of 2019, Scotiabank is predicting a stronger yen versus the US dollar, at ¥108, but slight yen weakness versus the Australian dollar, which will buy ¥81.
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