The Polish zloty (PLN) is currently experiencing a mixed performance against major currencies, following significant developments in its monetary policy and economic outlook. On December 3, 2025, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%, influenced by a lower-than-expected inflation rate of 2.4% in November. This decision has prompted Governor Adam Glapiński to adopt a "wait-and-see" strategy regarding future monetary policy adjustments, primarily due to Poland's substantial budget deficit.
Analysts have projected that the PLN may face headwinds heading into 2026. A recent Reuters poll indicates that Central European currencies, including the zloty, may retreat from recent highs, with expectations of a slight depreciation to around 4.25 EUR/PLN over the next year. This forecast stems from concerns about economic stagnation and prevailing fiscal challenges within Poland. Additionally, political uncertainties following the election of President Karol Nawrocki in August 2025 have raised questions around fiscal stability, further complicating the PLN's outlook.
Current market data reveals that the PLN to USD is trading near 60-day highs of 0.2780, which is 1.3% above its three-month average of 0.2742. The pair has maintained a stable trading range of 3.6%, fluctuating between 0.2694 and 0.2792. Concurrently, the PLN to EUR is at 14-day highs of 0.2367, slightly exceeding its three-month average, within a stable range of 1.2%. The PLN to GBP also shows promising upward movements, currently at 0.2075, just 0.7% above its three-month average, while the PLN to JPY is standing strong at 43.22, marking a 3.3% increase from its average.
Despite these encouraging price movements, forecasters have outlined potential risks inherent to Poland's trade tensions and political situation, which may influence the zloty adversely in the near term. Investors and businesses are advised to stay informed on economic indicators and political developments as they may significantly impact currency valuations moving forward.
