Recent developments indicate a significant shift in the Polish Zloty (PLN) as monetary policies and economic growth continue to evolve. On December 2–3, 2025, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) lowered its reference rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00%. This marks the fifth consecutive rate cut and is largely influenced by inflation stabilizing at the 2.5% target midpoint and robust GDP growth in the third quarter. Analysts note that this trend in monetary easing may continue, affecting the zloty's valuation against other currencies.
Another factor weighing on the PLN is the NBP's projected loss exceeding 30 billion zlotys for 2025, primarily driven by the zloty's strengthening against foreign currencies, especially the U.S. dollar. As the currency appreciates, it places additional pressure on the central bank's balance sheet and could lead to further interventions in the foreign exchange market.
Investment forecasts also remain optimistic, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk stating that investments in Poland could exceed 650 billion zlotys (approximately 160.3 billion U.S. dollars) in 2025, with expectations of reaching 700 billion zlotys. This encouraging perspective on infrastructure and economic development is likely to support the zloty in the longer term.
UBS analysts have recently adjusted their forecasts for the zloty's performance against the euro, noting a sideways trend paired with Poland's strong economic outlook. The expectation is for this trend to persist into the coming months.
Currently, the exchange rates reflect some of these shifts. The PLN to USD is trading at 30-day lows near 0.2762, just above its three-month average, within a stable 3.7% range from 0.2694 to 0.2794. The PLN to EUR stands at 7-day lows near 0.2374, slightly above its three-month average, also within a stable range of 1.7% from 0.2339 to 0.2379. Meanwhile, the PLN to GBP at 0.2060 is marginally below the three-month average, having fluctuated in a narrow 2.6% range from 0.2037 to 0.2089. Conversely, the PLN to JPY has risen to 43.61, which is 2.3% above its three-month average, trading within a 6.5% range from 41.26 to 43.95.
These currency movements and economic insights suggest that businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions may benefit from closely monitoring the PLN, as both monetary policy adjustments and economic forecasts come into play in shaping its future value.
